Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

July 27, 2026 · Merrill Kelly vs Mitch Keller · 86°F

3.1% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks win

51.4%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

48.6%

Fair line (home)

+106

Proj. total

9.44

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.93)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.51)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

9.44

Over

44.8%

Under

55.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	51.4%	+103	-106
Pittsburgh Pirates	48.6%	-112	+106

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Corbin Carroll	4.9	.679	.200	.104	.187	.536	.969	.270	.360	.494	.854
Geraldo Perdomo	4.8	.857	.185	.036	.089	.568	.577	.279	.375	.405	.779
Gabriel Moreno	4.7	.887	.223	.013	.105	.485	.703	.294	.374	.428	.802
Ketel Marte	4.6	.769	.218	.029	.184	.438	.650	.292	.369	.493	.862
Max Kepler	4.5	.681	.194	.022	.124	.420	.859	.252	.330	.403	.733
Tyler Locklear	4.4	.707	.196	.019	.105	.350	1.052	.258	.331	.397	.728
Adrian Del Castillo	4.3	.610	.202	.011	.118	.363	1.104	.242	.312	.391	.703
Ildemaro Vargas	4.2	.781	.171	.039	.061	.237	.407	.270	.320	.381	.701
Ryan Waldschmidt	4.1	.637	.182	.030	.059	.395	.976	.254	.341	.371	.712

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake Mangum	4.7	1.032	.226	.016	.045	.223	.700	.300	.340	.389	.729
Brandon Lowe	4.5	.671	.196	.011	.219	.401	1.027	.266	.335	.479	.814
Bryan Reynolds	4.4	.752	.191	.024	.143	.447	.931	.281	.360	.450	.810
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.3	.633	.181	.015	.180	.427	1.099	.261	.339	.454	.794
Ryan O'Hearn	4.2	.786	.183	.009	.146	.366	.714	.293	.359	.459	.818
Nick Gonzales	4.1	.820	.221	.028	.070	.274	.674	.299	.352	.426	.778
Jacob Gonzalez	4.0	.639	.164	.009	.105	.314	.707	.250	.315	.386	.701
Tyler Callihan	3.9	.605	.145	.034	.074	.318	.996	.241	.307	.362	.669
Henry Davis	3.8	.543	.146	.005	.121	.331	.813	.239	.316	.392	.708

Data notes: game-time temp 86F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections