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Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

July 24, 2026 · Matthew Boyd vs Jared Jones · 79°F
1.4% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs win
49.1%
Pittsburgh Pirates win
50.9%
Fair line (home)
-104
Proj. total
8.33

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

0%8%16%03691215182124Runs scored
Chicago Cubs (mean 4.23)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.10)

Totals

O/U line
8
Proj. total
8.33
Over
43.9%
Under
48.3%

Model vs. market

SideModelBookFair
Chicago Cubs49.1%-106+104
Pittsburgh Pirates50.9%-102-104

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong4.8.679.193.043.176.3731.273.249.318.432.751
Seiya Suzuki4.7.634.182.015.165.5291.283.240.331.410.741
Michael Busch4.6.570.167.027.159.5691.193.233.340.410.749
Alex Bregman4.5.677.164.011.117.523.697.247.344.385.729
Ian Happ4.4.527.164.017.128.5581.232.221.328.375.703
Nico Hoerner4.3.818.197.011.046.344.425.276.344.368.711
Pedro Ramírez4.2.725.145.024.053.281.874.246.305.338.643
Carson Kelly4.1.610.132.007.101.418.843.236.323.360.683
Dansby Swanson4.0.547.128.020.117.3691.017.229.305.375.680

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
Jake Mangum4.6.944.208.008.041.208.801.277.319.357.676
Nick Gonzales4.5.820.208.025.073.299.843.273.331.389.720
Bryan Reynolds4.4.684.170.013.132.4011.050.256.335.407.741
Esmerlyn Valdez4.3.576.160.013.171.4051.208.241.321.423.744
Ryan O'Hearn4.2.715.163.009.147.366.808.275.345.440.785
Marcell Ozuna4.1.559.126.004.152.4871.041.237.334.403.737
Brandon Lowe4.0.521.157.008.183.343.996.243.315.446.761
Jared Triolo3.8.610.151.010.062.386.877.245.328.350.679
Henry Davis3.7.474.137.006.114.310.915.219.298.366.664
Data notes: home starter Jared Jones: only 63 BF vs RHB this season · away starter Matthew Boyd: only 50 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections