Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

July 29, 2026 · Eduardo Rodriguez vs Jared Jones · 79°F

1.8% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks win

46.6%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

53.4%

Fair line (home)

-115

Proj. total

8.8

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.33)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.48)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.8

Over

48.7%

Under

51.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	46.6%	+119	+115
Pittsburgh Pirates	53.4%	-129	-115

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Corbin Carroll	4.8	.623	.181	.093	.168	.557	1.106	.253	.348	.460	.808
Geraldo Perdomo	4.7	.779	.173	.033	.081	.604	.677	.263	.367	.381	.748
Gabriel Moreno	4.6	.815	.208	.011	.097	.485	.820	.277	.360	.405	.765
Ketel Marte	4.5	.709	.196	.025	.162	.462	.766	.273	.356	.457	.812
Max Kepler	4.4	.626	.181	.018	.108	.421	.976	.237	.317	.374	.690
Nolan Arenado	4.3	.646	.179	.008	.114	.338	.787	.242	.309	.379	.688
Tim Tawa	4.2	.555	.161	.023	.097	.369	1.080	.221	.295	.352	.647
Ildemaro Vargas	4.1	.728	.158	.032	.061	.246	.471	.259	.311	.366	.677
Jorge Barrosa	4.0	.549	.159	.017	.050	.344	1.035	.216	.291	.312	.602

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Gonzales	4.7	.907	.234	.032	.080	.330	.775	.292	.349	.417	.766
Brandon Lowe	4.5	.651	.188	.012	.202	.415	1.052	.256	.328	.455	.783
Bryan Reynolds	4.4	.738	.189	.014	.130	.440	.938	.272	.353	.426	.779
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.3	.635	.178	.012	.164	.431	1.105	.257	.337	.437	.774
Ryan O'Hearn	4.2	.776	.180	.009	.136	.396	.720	.290	.362	.450	.812
Marcell Ozuna	4.1	.612	.142	.004	.152	.534	.935	.255	.355	.426	.781
Jared Triolo	4.0	.681	.167	.011	.062	.423	.806	.259	.342	.364	.706
Jhostynxon Garcia	3.9	.626	.155	.014	.095	.263	.955	.247	.305	.377	.682
Henry Davis	3.8	.531	.146	.006	.117	.334	.818	.236	.313	.386	.699

Data notes: home starter Jared Jones: only 74 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections