Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

July 28, 2026 · Brandon Pfaadt vs Bubba Chandler · 78°F

3.6% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks win

52.7%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

47.3%

Fair line (home)

+111

Proj. total

9.17

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.85)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.32)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

9.17

Over

42.0%

Under

58.0%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	52.7%	-100	-111
Pittsburgh Pirates	47.3%	-108	+111

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Corbin Carroll	5.0	.639	.183	.109	.176	.651	.992	.262	.368	.481	.850
Geraldo Perdomo	4.8	.803	.173	.042	.082	.693	.595	.270	.384	.393	.777
Gabriel Moreno	4.7	.866	.208	.010	.098	.559	.738	.287	.378	.413	.791
Ketel Marte	4.6	.731	.208	.029	.171	.525	.667	.282	.373	.475	.849
Max Kepler	4.5	.645	.184	.017	.118	.488	.903	.243	.333	.387	.719
Nolan Arenado	4.4	.687	.183	.009	.113	.386	.726	.249	.323	.385	.708
Tim Tawa	4.3	.599	.158	.026	.111	.433	.992	.234	.318	.376	.694
James McCann	4.2	.664	.173	.008	.094	.262	.998	.243	.300	.365	.665
Ryan Waldschmidt	4.1	.607	.163	.031	.055	.486	1.000	.243	.346	.354	.700

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake Mangum	4.7	1.018	.218	.012	.040	.214	.733	.294	.334	.377	.711
Brandon Lowe	4.5	.653	.199	.012	.195	.380	1.071	.257	.325	.453	.778
Bryan Reynolds	4.4	.736	.190	.021	.129	.418	.989	.272	.351	.429	.780
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.3	.627	.181	.014	.157	.398	1.152	.253	.330	.428	.758
Ryan O'Hearn	4.2	.758	.179	.009	.130	.342	.746	.281	.346	.435	.781
Nick Gonzales	4.1	.796	.203	.025	.066	.264	.705	.287	.341	.406	.747
Endy Rodríguez	4.0	.615	.185	.012	.085	.389	.859	.250	.329	.380	.709
Marcell Ozuna	3.9	.579	.133	.004	.142	.443	.930	.251	.341	.417	.758
Jacob Gonzalez	3.8	.595	.148	.010	.085	.279	.695	.242	.306	.364	.670

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections