New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

August 7, 2026 · Zac Thornton vs Carmen Mlodzinski · 79°F

4.7% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

48.7%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

51.3%

Fair line (home)

-105

Proj. total

8.39

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.24)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.15)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.39

Over

44.7%

Under

55.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	48.7%	+123	+105
Pittsburgh Pirates	51.3%	-133	-105

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.8	.839	.195	.028	.075	.501	1.121	.264	.346	.375	.721
Francisco Lindor	4.7	.714	.168	.025	.154	.456	.859	.254	.339	.417	.756
Bo Bichette	4.6	.865	.208	.015	.110	.330	.772	.282	.338	.415	.753
Carson Benge	4.5	.750	.167	.026	.112	.400	.938	.260	.333	.397	.729
Jared Young	4.4	.630	.170	.015	.132	.429	1.024	.243	.329	.396	.725
Marcus Semien	4.3	.620	.142	.016	.111	.413	.802	.231	.310	.363	.673
Brett Baty	4.2	.623	.145	.012	.103	.391	1.064	.236	.313	.363	.676
Jorge Polanco	4.1	.560	.141	.003	.135	.458	.860	.235	.329	.390	.719
Luis Torrens	4.0	.591	.168	.008	.080	.288	.870	.234	.299	.351	.650

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake Mangum	4.6	.968	.199	.007	.043	.217	.749	.279	.322	.357	.679
Brandon Lowe	4.5	.607	.179	.009	.218	.417	1.091	.249	.324	.458	.781
Bryan Reynolds	4.4	.699	.182	.016	.144	.423	.983	.265	.346	.430	.776
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.3	.579	.174	.012	.169	.427	1.152	.243	.326	.427	.753
Spencer Horwitz	4.2	.681	.210	.012	.108	.529	.645	.279	.378	.434	.811
Nick Gonzales	4.1	.764	.188	.025	.068	.284	.717	.278	.336	.395	.731
Ronny Simon	4.0	.658	.170	.013	.059	.320	.793	.248	.317	.351	.668
Jared Triolo	3.9	.614	.158	.009	.058	.411	.831	.245	.331	.347	.678
Rafael Flores Jr.	3.8	.545	.137	.011	.078	.375	.998	.230	.312	.347	.659

Data notes: away starter Zac Thornton: only 48 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections