New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

August 8, 2026 · Robert Stock vs Bubba Chandler · 81°F

6.1% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

53.0%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

47.0%

Fair line (home)

+113

Proj. total

8.64

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.58)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.07)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.64

Over

37.4%

Under

52.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	53.0%	+109	-113
Pittsburgh Pirates	47.0%	-118	+113

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.9	.819	.198	.026	.077	.566	1.131	.262	.353	.374	.727
Francisco Lindor	4.8	.703	.165	.028	.172	.509	.865	.257	.352	.435	.787
Bo Bichette	4.7	.870	.202	.012	.128	.366	.758	.285	.347	.429	.776
Jared Young	4.5	.617	.166	.013	.166	.486	1.036	.242	.336	.416	.752
Luis Robert Jr.	4.4	.616	.169	.006	.149	.409	1.202	.236	.314	.394	.708
Brett Baty	4.3	.650	.138	.014	.114	.433	1.096	.238	.321	.370	.690
Marcus Semien	4.2	.604	.139	.013	.125	.443	.762	.235	.320	.379	.700
Jorge Polanco	4.1	.560	.142	.003	.152	.491	.857	.240	.338	.409	.747
Francisco Alvarez	4.0	.521	.135	.008	.172	.410	1.003	.236	.324	.425	.749

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake Mangum	4.7	.953	.206	.011	.043	.265	.850	.281	.331	.363	.694
Brandon Lowe	4.5	.595	.171	.009	.198	.443	1.198	.240	.321	.434	.755
Bryan Reynolds	4.4	.660	.170	.020	.127	.490	1.091	.253	.347	.406	.753
Spencer Horwitz	4.3	.663	.196	.012	.104	.584	.758	.266	.374	.410	.784
Nick Gonzales	4.2	.763	.193	.027	.067	.311	.841	.273	.337	.390	.726
Endy Rodríguez	4.1	.577	.161	.010	.089	.449	.991	.231	.321	.355	.676
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.0	.516	.152	.012	.142	.422	1.180	.233	.324	.404	.727
Jacob Gonzalez	3.9	.565	.140	.007	.086	.326	.829	.227	.300	.344	.644
Ronny Simon	3.8	.608	.147	.017	.054	.344	.830	.244	.321	.346	.667

Data notes: away starter Robert Stock: only 12 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Robert Stock: only 6 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections