Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

August 15, 2026 · Sonny Gray vs Jared Jones · 80°F

1.5% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Boston Red Sox win

51.3%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

48.6%

Fair line (home)

+106

Proj. total

8.01

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 4.14)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 3.87)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.01

Over

48.7%

Under

51.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	51.3%	-117	-106
Pittsburgh Pirates	48.6%	+108	+106

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Masataka Yoshida	4.8	.836	.207	.019	.100	.379	.730	.266	.335	.391	.726
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.7	.729	.218	.030	.122	.240	1.069	.250	.298	.397	.695
Adley Rutschman	4.6	.662	.180	.015	.120	.536	.800	.243	.335	.385	.720
Willson Contreras	4.5	.583	.175	.015	.175	.467	1.235	.244	.342	.431	.773
Wilyer Abreu	4.4	.583	.186	.019	.146	.470	1.114	.241	.326	.412	.739
Caleb Durbin	4.3	.652	.205	.016	.091	.331	.593	.252	.327	.385	.712
Jarren Duran	4.2	.535	.186	.049	.094	.351	1.180	.230	.304	.381	.684
Andruw Monasterio	4.0	.601	.176	.004	.064	.360	1.029	.232	.308	.336	.643
Nick Sogard	3.9	.578	.146	.010	.038	.446	.980	.224	.318	.305	.623

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Spencer Horwitz	4.6	.762	.228	.013	.114	.525	.868	.277	.367	.425	.792
Brandon Lowe	4.5	.622	.181	.011	.194	.361	1.266	.246	.311	.437	.748
Bryan Reynolds	4.4	.703	.178	.019	.124	.397	1.154	.260	.335	.410	.745
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.3	.586	.171	.012	.144	.392	1.325	.237	.314	.400	.714
Ronny Simon	4.2	.716	.175	.019	.059	.309	.961	.253	.315	.356	.670
Jacob Gonzalez	4.1	.626	.157	.011	.090	.294	.900	.237	.299	.357	.656
Jake Mangum	4.0	.841	.187	.009	.032	.181	.752	.287	.327	.368	.694
Rafael Flores Jr.	3.8	.574	.155	.013	.071	.333	1.164	.234	.306	.348	.654
Jared Triolo	3.7	.595	.152	.010	.049	.367	.930	.243	.325	.340	.664

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections