Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

August 14, 2026 · Jake Bennett vs Bubba Chandler · 77°F

0.5% edge · Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox win

52.7%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

47.3%

Fair line (home)

+111

Proj. total

8.57

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 4.53)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.04)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.57

Over

46.8%

Under

45.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	52.7%	-114	-111
Pittsburgh Pirates	47.3%	+105	+111

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Sogard	4.9	.732	.195	.015	.054	.633	1.084	.236	.341	.327	.669
Masataka Yoshida	4.8	.843	.212	.016	.102	.412	.635	.274	.349	.402	.752
Adley Rutschman	4.7	.694	.187	.019	.135	.609	.699	.256	.357	.412	.768
Willson Contreras	4.6	.598	.186	.015	.183	.527	1.141	.252	.361	.448	.809
Wilyer Abreu	4.5	.601	.196	.022	.147	.544	1.024	.247	.343	.421	.764
Caleb Durbin	4.4	.657	.214	.015	.094	.379	.532	.253	.337	.389	.726
Jarren Duran	4.3	.563	.194	.052	.105	.413	1.068	.241	.324	.402	.726
Andruw Monasterio	4.1	.638	.191	.005	.071	.417	.925	.246	.329	.358	.688
Eli White	4.0	.602	.125	.024	.097	.317	1.054	.232	.302	.359	.661

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Gonzales	4.6	.924	.237	.029	.069	.290	.810	.294	.347	.411	.758
Ronny Simon	4.5	.814	.204	.015	.061	.304	.863	.263	.320	.363	.683
Bryan Reynolds	4.4	.738	.194	.013	.121	.375	.967	.269	.342	.416	.758
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.3	.614	.177	.016	.153	.401	1.146	.249	.326	.422	.749
Brandon Lowe	4.2	.608	.184	.010	.174	.347	1.008	.255	.322	.445	.768
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.1	.660	.167	.015	.079	.361	1.061	.249	.321	.366	.687
Jake Mangum	4.0	.856	.188	.008	.034	.160	.659	.288	.326	.369	.695
Jared Triolo	3.9	.666	.159	.012	.055	.378	.821	.258	.337	.358	.695
Henry Davis	3.8	.523	.146	.006	.099	.310	.878	.229	.304	.363	.668

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections