New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

August 9, 2026 · Sean Manaea vs Jared Jones · 83°F

5.7% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

48.4%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

51.6%

Fair line (home)

-106

Proj. total

8.13

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.10)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.03)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.13

Over

42.0%

Under

50.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	48.4%	+129	+106
Pittsburgh Pirates	51.6%	-141	-106

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.8	.781	.179	.027	.072	.478	1.232	.248	.328	.353	.681
Francisco Lindor	4.7	.681	.160	.023	.166	.433	.961	.249	.332	.418	.751
Bo Bichette	4.5	.843	.197	.012	.121	.307	.868	.279	.332	.418	.750
Carson Benge	4.5	.691	.162	.024	.115	.386	1.048	.247	.321	.385	.706
Luis Robert Jr.	4.3	.581	.154	.006	.142	.363	1.278	.225	.297	.375	.672
Jared Young	4.2	.571	.151	.013	.139	.400	1.088	.231	.315	.388	.704
Marcus Semien	4.1	.574	.129	.016	.118	.382	.839	.225	.302	.364	.666
Brett Baty	4.0	.585	.127	.011	.105	.370	1.121	.230	.307	.359	.666
Francisco Alvarez	3.9	.485	.122	.007	.161	.358	1.081	.222	.302	.398	.700

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake Mangum	4.6	.929	.204	.010	.046	.225	.836	.276	.322	.360	.682
Ronny Simon	4.5	.756	.179	.015	.070	.364	.975	.250	.321	.353	.674
Bryan Reynolds	4.4	.657	.168	.015	.149	.441	1.090	.256	.343	.423	.766
Nick Gonzales	4.3	.773	.204	.026	.075	.313	.835	.276	.339	.400	.739
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.2	.539	.159	.013	.178	.436	1.215	.241	.328	.436	.764
Brandon Lowe	4.1	.522	.151	.009	.198	.394	1.077	.241	.321	.451	.772
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.0	.563	.151	.013	.090	.403	1.116	.232	.317	.360	.677
Jared Triolo	3.9	.590	.148	.010	.063	.438	.896	.241	.335	.347	.682
Henry Davis	3.7	.467	.136	.005	.123	.351	.934	.221	.309	.376	.685

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections