Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

August 16, 2026 · Patrick Sandoval vs Lake Bachar · 74°F

2.3% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Boston Red Sox win

49.3%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

50.7%

Fair line (home)

-103

Proj. total

7.72

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 3.93)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 3.79)

O/U line

Proj. total

7.72

Over

37.9%

Under

54.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	49.3%	-111	+103
Pittsburgh Pirates	50.7%	+103	-103

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Sogard	4.8	.697	.175	.015	.046	.571	1.165	.222	.321	.303	.624
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.7	.711	.221	.031	.119	.266	1.043	.247	.300	.393	.693
Wilyer Abreu	4.6	.602	.188	.021	.144	.539	1.117	.238	.331	.402	.733
Adley Rutschman	4.5	.641	.165	.014	.118	.556	.760	.241	.340	.381	.722
Caleb Durbin	4.4	.658	.217	.018	.086	.363	.571	.252	.333	.383	.716
Andruw Monasterio	4.3	.631	.188	.006	.066	.418	1.048	.235	.317	.339	.657
Jarren Duran	4.2	.533	.181	.050	.098	.376	1.129	.231	.310	.385	.695
Anthony Seigler	4.0	.513	.164	.019	.051	.537	.916	.215	.327	.317	.644
Connor Wong	3.9	.590	.164	.009	.074	.333	1.012	.236	.311	.350	.662

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jared Triolo	4.6	.723	.183	.012	.061	.547	1.046	.244	.341	.341	.682
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.5	.607	.180	.011	.143	.492	1.302	.239	.330	.398	.728
Bryan Reynolds	4.4	.697	.182	.014	.109	.457	1.075	.259	.346	.399	.745
Brandon Lowe	4.3	.577	.175	.012	.154	.431	1.142	.240	.322	.413	.735
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.2	.630	.159	.015	.066	.438	1.185	.234	.320	.338	.658
Jake Mangum	4.1	.858	.197	.006	.032	.222	.741	.287	.334	.367	.701
Nick Yorke	4.0	.684	.170	.016	.056	.320	.933	.256	.322	.358	.679
Billy Cook	3.9	.545	.142	.013	.072	.307	1.105	.220	.290	.330	.620
Henry Davis	3.7	.489	.133	.005	.096	.369	.938	.219	.309	.350	.659

Data notes: away starter Patrick Sandoval: only 36 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections