Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

August 17, 2026 · Framber Valdez vs Carmen Mlodzinski · 79°F

0.1% edge · Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers win

49.6%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

50.4%

Fair line (home)

-102

Proj. total

7.8

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Detroit Tigers (mean 3.99)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 3.81)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

7.8

Over

39.4%

Under

60.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Detroit Tigers	49.6%	-102	+102
Pittsburgh Pirates	50.4%	-106	-102

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gleyber Torres	4.8	.790	.174	.005	.102	.605	.829	.258	.357	.377	.733
Kevin McGonigle	4.7	.766	.214	.031	.084	.625	.652	.272	.375	.404	.778
Dillon Dingler	4.6	.686	.196	.019	.139	.319	1.054	.248	.311	.403	.714
Colt Keith	4.5	.728	.177	.030	.114	.395	.876	.260	.331	.404	.735
Zach McKinstry	4.4	.633	.143	.055	.066	.427	.896	.230	.313	.346	.658
Hao-Yu Lee	4.3	.632	.151	.030	.079	.334	1.000	.230	.298	.345	.643
Brett Callahan	4.2	.619	.149	.026	.086	.312	1.055	.233	.300	.355	.655
Max Clark	4.0	.626	.144	.026	.055	.427	.806	.238	.325	.339	.664
Javier Báez	3.9	.617	.146	.015	.084	.169	.920	.233	.274	.348	.622

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jared Triolo	4.6	.761	.200	.013	.059	.464	1.018	.252	.335	.351	.686
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.5	.663	.182	.014	.131	.413	1.234	.246	.324	.396	.720
Bryan Reynolds	4.4	.723	.191	.014	.101	.404	1.012	.264	.343	.398	.740
Nick Gonzales	4.3	.829	.211	.026	.053	.284	.787	.285	.342	.392	.734
Brandon Lowe	4.2	.587	.167	.010	.150	.359	1.046	.242	.314	.411	.725
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.1	.640	.163	.013	.062	.375	1.089	.240	.316	.343	.658
Jake Mangum	4.0	.845	.189	.007	.031	.172	.664	.287	.328	.366	.694
Nick Yorke	3.8	.691	.166	.017	.051	.280	.828	.263	.323	.363	.686
Henry Davis	3.7	.508	.135	.005	.091	.315	.887	.221	.300	.346	.647

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections