Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

August 19, 2026 · Jackson Jobe vs Paul Skenes · 80°F

0.1% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Detroit Tigers win

40.4%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

59.6%

Fair line (home)

-147

Proj. total

7.93

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Detroit Tigers (mean 3.60)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.34)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.93

Over

40.5%

Under

51.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Detroit Tigers	40.4%	+142	+147
Pittsburgh Pirates	59.6%	-154	-147

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jackson Jobe RHP · Detroit Tigers	4.4	3.7	4.5	2.0	2.2
Paul Skenes RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	5.3	6.0	4.5	1.5	1.7

Strikeout ladder

Jackson Jobe4+ 53%6+ 16%8+ 3%

Paul Skenes4+ 87%6+ 57%8+ 25%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Colt Keith	4.7	.751	.174	.036	.110	.362	1.129	.249	.313	.384	.696
Gleyber Torres	4.6	.691	.161	.003	.096	.513	1.025	.236	.327	.349	.675
Kevin McGonigle	4.5	.689	.186	.024	.098	.518	.843	.254	.345	.388	.733
Dillon Dingler	4.4	.605	.170	.015	.136	.260	1.223	.229	.288	.379	.667
Brett Callahan	4.3	.610	.133	.031	.083	.240	1.300	.215	.271	.326	.597
Zach McKinstry	4.2	.575	.143	.049	.058	.376	.972	.220	.298	.331	.629
Spencer Torkelson	4.0	.434	.150	.003	.127	.400	1.344	.198	.287	.347	.634
Max Clark	3.9	.588	.135	.033	.070	.339	.952	.233	.306	.349	.655
Hao-Yu Lee	3.8	.556	.140	.021	.081	.251	1.011	.227	.286	.347	.633

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Spencer Horwitz	4.6	.735	.217	.013	.112	.591	.676	.272	.374	.418	.791
Brandon Lowe	4.5	.629	.174	.006	.192	.410	1.102	.247	.321	.434	.755
Bryan Reynolds	4.4	.688	.181	.018	.125	.469	.965	.262	.352	.416	.768
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.3	.556	.167	.011	.188	.476	1.143	.244	.335	.444	.779
Oneil Cruz	4.2	.557	.152	.017	.162	.492	1.195	.243	.338	.426	.764
Nick Gonzales	4.1	.772	.205	.021	.070	.270	.650	.284	.340	.405	.745
Jacob Gonzalez	4.0	.600	.178	.011	.107	.286	.674	.245	.307	.389	.696
Jared Triolo	3.9	.633	.146	.009	.059	.418	.756	.249	.337	.350	.687
Henry Davis	3.7	.511	.134	.007	.118	.331	.817	.229	.310	.379	.689

Data notes: away starter Jackson Jobe: only 27 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Jackson Jobe: only 12 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections