Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

August 18, 2026 · Keider Montero vs Braxton Ashcraft · 78°F

1.5% edge · Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers win

43.4%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

56.6%

Fair line (home)

-130

Proj. total

7.91

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Detroit Tigers (mean 3.78)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.13)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.91

Over

40.4%

Under

52.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Detroit Tigers	43.4%	+134	+130
Pittsburgh Pirates	56.6%	-146	-130

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Keider Montero RHP · Detroit Tigers	4.5	4.1	4.7	1.6	2.1
Braxton Ashcraft RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	5.6	5.2	5.3	1.8	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Keider Montero4+ 56%6+ 25%8+ 8%

Braxton Ashcraft4+ 74%6+ 43%8+ 18%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gleyber Torres	4.7	.791	.181	.004	.103	.527	.887	.258	.346	.377	.722
Kevin McGonigle	4.6	.756	.210	.030	.089	.553	.702	.268	.361	.401	.761
Colt Keith	4.5	.742	.174	.031	.115	.367	.966	.257	.324	.398	.722
Eduardo Valencia	4.4	.654	.157	.010	.116	.299	1.111	.230	.291	.359	.650
Zach McKinstry	4.3	.619	.144	.057	.069	.383	.932	.228	.304	.348	.652
Spencer Torkelson	4.2	.478	.168	.004	.143	.443	1.270	.213	.306	.376	.682
Brett Callahan	4.1	.599	.152	.024	.089	.277	1.099	.228	.289	.351	.641
Max Clark	4.0	.618	.141	.029	.057	.392	.810	.237	.318	.340	.658
Javier Báez	3.9	.600	.146	.015	.083	.144	.956	.229	.267	.345	.612

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Spencer Horwitz	4.6	.738	.228	.012	.120	.534	.704	.275	.367	.427	.794
Brandon Lowe	4.5	.619	.173	.012	.214	.370	1.066	.250	.318	.456	.774
Bryan Reynolds	4.3	.695	.179	.019	.131	.404	.964	.262	.339	.419	.758
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.3	.596	.168	.012	.161	.374	1.151	.244	.318	.420	.738
Oneil Cruz	4.1	.544	.163	.016	.183	.420	1.239	.245	.326	.446	.772
Jake Mangum	4.0	.840	.184	.012	.038	.190	.664	.282	.323	.366	.689
Rafael Flores Jr.	3.9	.596	.153	.013	.080	.339	1.064	.236	.308	.354	.661
Jacob Gonzalez	3.8	.587	.145	.007	.097	.275	.717	.239	.301	.368	.669
Jared Triolo	3.7	.589	.153	.010	.059	.358	.795	.246	.326	.353	.679

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections