San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

September 1, 2026 · Logan Webb vs Paul Skenes · 86°F

1.2% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

San Francisco Giants win

39.0%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

61.0%

Fair line (home)

-157

Proj. total

7.32

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 3.28)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.03)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.32

Over

42.1%

Under

57.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	39.0%	+144	+157
Pittsburgh Pirates	61.0%	-157	-157

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Logan Webb RHP · San Francisco Giants	5.7	5.3	6.0	1.8	2.4
Paul Skenes RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	5.3	6.0	4.4	1.3	1.6

Strikeout ladder

Logan Webb4+ 79%6+ 44%8+ 15%

Paul Skenes4+ 88%6+ 58%8+ 24%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drew Gilbert	4.6	.623	.169	.031	.091	.365	1.033	.219	.293	.340	.633
Rafael Devers	4.5	.539	.181	.008	.152	.480	1.382	.221	.310	.385	.695
Bryce Eldridge	4.4	.546	.169	.004	.138	.403	1.497	.215	.292	.364	.656
Turner Hill	4.3	.722	.179	.040	.038	.320	.740	.249	.314	.344	.658
Jung Hoo Lee	4.2	.727	.196	.043	.063	.255	.590	.264	.318	.385	.702
Osleivis Basabe	4.1	.641	.166	.013	.064	.200	.843	.229	.275	.329	.604
Drew Cavanaugh	4.0	.523	.135	.007	.065	.354	1.332	.205	.289	.302	.591
Shay Whitcomb	3.9	.501	.123	.010	.103	.215	1.283	.204	.257	.330	.586
Christian Koss	3.7	.566	.150	.013	.049	.152	.990	.220	.262	.312	.574

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Spencer Horwitz	4.6	.795	.240	.015	.084	.461	.680	.280	.360	.408	.768
Brandon Lowe	4.5	.686	.199	.011	.143	.343	1.094	.255	.317	.414	.731
Bryan Reynolds	4.3	.743	.189	.018	.096	.385	.961	.268	.342	.399	.741
Nick Gonzales	4.2	.850	.235	.024	.056	.230	.693	.293	.339	.407	.745
Oneil Cruz	4.1	.616	.173	.016	.128	.411	1.198	.252	.332	.412	.743
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.0	.591	.182	.011	.135	.374	1.084	.254	.329	.422	.750
Jacob Gonzalez	3.9	.631	.195	.012	.082	.235	.666	.252	.303	.379	.682
Jared Triolo	3.8	.665	.169	.011	.043	.342	.755	.259	.333	.353	.686
Henry Davis	3.7	.548	.140	.005	.086	.275	.808	.232	.301	.354	.655

Data notes: game-time temp 86F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections