San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

September 2, 2026 · Landen Roupp vs Bubba Chandler · 90°F

2.1% edge · San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants win

44.0%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

56.0%

Fair line (home)

-127

Proj. total

8.71

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 4.18)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.54)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.71

Over

47.7%

Under

52.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	44.0%	+134	+127
Pittsburgh Pirates	56.0%	-145	-127

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Landen Roupp RHP · San Francisco Giants	5.0	5.1	5.1	2.5	2.3
Bubba Chandler RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	4.9	4.1	4.9	2.2	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Landen Roupp4+ 76%6+ 40%8+ 13%

Bubba Chandler4+ 60%6+ 22%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drew Gilbert	4.8	.672	.185	.031	.108	.485	.831	.234	.324	.368	.692
Rafael Devers	4.7	.585	.201	.008	.198	.647	1.166	.246	.356	.448	.804
Bryce Eldridge	4.6	.618	.182	.006	.170	.544	1.260	.242	.337	.417	.754
Turner Hill	4.5	.786	.185	.046	.054	.429	.583	.266	.345	.376	.721
Jung Hoo Lee	4.4	.784	.210	.048	.069	.333	.462	.277	.340	.406	.745
Drew Cavanaugh	4.3	.605	.156	.008	.085	.474	1.165	.228	.327	.342	.669
Nate Furman	4.2	.703	.156	.013	.053	.411	.664	.249	.333	.342	.675
Shay Whitcomb	4.1	.547	.140	.011	.134	.285	1.129	.223	.285	.373	.659
Christian Koss	4.0	.653	.167	.012	.061	.205	.878	.242	.291	.343	.634

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Spencer Horwitz	4.7	.792	.232	.014	.095	.649	.714	.282	.389	.418	.807
Brandon Lowe	4.6	.659	.196	.013	.169	.461	1.154	.252	.332	.429	.761
Bryan Reynolds	4.5	.705	.186	.018	.104	.542	1.023	.260	.359	.398	.757
Nick Gonzales	4.4	.862	.212	.021	.060	.315	.740	.288	.348	.396	.744
Oneil Cruz	4.3	.588	.169	.017	.145	.550	1.241	.248	.350	.421	.771
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.2	.564	.175	.010	.148	.510	1.140	.248	.347	.425	.772
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.1	.639	.152	.015	.103	.418	1.024	.251	.333	.387	.720
Jake Mangum	4.0	.829	.168	.020	.032	.225	.641	.285	.335	.368	.703
Jared Triolo	3.8	.645	.159	.010	.053	.444	.762	.259	.352	.359	.710

Data notes: game-time temp 90F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections