Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

September 4, 2026 · Ryan Johnson vs Jared Jones · 78°F

1.0% edge · Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels win

37.7%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

62.3%

Fair line (home)

-165

Proj. total

8.06

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Angels (mean 3.58)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.48)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.06

Over

41.8%

Under

58.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Angels	37.7%	+167	+165
Pittsburgh Pirates	62.3%	-183	-165

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Ryan Johnson RHP · Los Angeles Angels	4.2	3.4	4.6	1.6	2.1
Jared Jones RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	4.6	5.4	3.9	1.6	1.6

Strikeout ladder

Ryan Johnson4+ 46%6+ 12%8+ 2%

Jared Jones4+ 81%6+ 46%8+ 16%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Zach Neto	4.7	.594	.191	.019	.153	.379	1.383	.226	.304	.388	.692
Mike Trout	4.6	.551	.143	.007	.166	.709	1.363	.227	.356	.398	.753
Wade Meckler	4.5	.788	.171	.011	.056	.458	1.042	.256	.336	.346	.682
Vaughn Grissom	4.4	.714	.188	.005	.090	.317	.899	.248	.313	.365	.677
Moisés Ballesteros	4.3	.663	.176	.006	.098	.363	.914	.242	.311	.366	.676
Christian Moore	4.2	.534	.141	.030	.085	.426	1.354	.213	.300	.336	.636
Jose Siri	4.1	.482	.131	.016	.127	.280	1.448	.201	.265	.346	.611
Adam Frazier	4.0	.609	.146	.012	.046	.292	.865	.226	.293	.311	.605
Oswald Peraza	3.8	.523	.111	.016	.081	.243	1.116	.208	.272	.318	.590

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Spencer Horwitz	4.6	.743	.220	.013	.120	.577	.712	.274	.373	.426	.799
Brandon Lowe	4.5	.630	.193	.011	.212	.437	1.094	.259	.336	.469	.805
Bryan Reynolds	4.4	.696	.182	.018	.133	.465	.960	.265	.353	.424	.777
Nick Gonzales	4.3	.829	.208	.022	.074	.303	.698	.287	.346	.408	.753
Oneil Cruz	4.2	.558	.158	.027	.180	.498	1.187	.252	.347	.457	.804
Konnor Griffin	4.1	.754	.167	.034	.101	.308	.905	.284	.348	.428	.776
Jake Mangum	4.0	.830	.170	.023	.035	.208	.659	.284	.331	.370	.701
Jacob Gonzalez	3.9	.576	.174	.011	.112	.289	.674	.247	.311	.397	.707
Henry Davis	3.7	.504	.134	.006	.120	.347	.816	.229	.313	.381	.694

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections