San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

September 3, 2026 · Blade Tidwell vs Lake Bachar · 90°F

0.4% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

San Francisco Giants win

40.1%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

59.9%

Fair line (home)

-149

Proj. total

8.29

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 3.80)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.49)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.29

Over

33.9%

Under

56.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	40.1%	+142	+149
Pittsburgh Pirates	59.9%	-155	-149

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Blade Tidwell RHP · San Francisco Giants	2.7	2.2	2.9	1.3	1.2
Lake Bachar RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	2.2	2.1	2.0	0.8	0.8

Strikeout ladder

Blade Tidwell4+ 17%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Lake Bachar4+ 14%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drew Gilbert	4.8	.666	.182	.032	.103	.466	.898	.234	.322	.366	.687
Rafael Devers	4.6	.550	.188	.008	.190	.597	1.221	.234	.340	.428	.768
Bryce Eldridge	4.5	.600	.175	.005	.152	.508	1.334	.234	.325	.394	.719
Jonah Cox	4.4	.756	.128	.081	.058	.284	1.130	.249	.303	.362	.666
Turner Hill	4.3	.722	.177	.045	.048	.394	.598	.256	.333	.362	.695
Andrew Knizner	4.2	.604	.150	.006	.088	.370	.906	.225	.307	.338	.644
Shay Whitcomb	4.1	.543	.131	.009	.128	.276	1.223	.214	.275	.355	.630
Nate Furman	4.0	.652	.151	.012	.048	.379	.675	.243	.325	.333	.659
Christian Koss	3.9	.628	.163	.014	.059	.194	.889	.239	.287	.341	.628

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Spencer Horwitz	4.7	.762	.234	.014	.106	.613	.645	.279	.383	.424	.807
Brandon Lowe	4.6	.671	.186	.009	.188	.450	1.042	.259	.338	.448	.786
Bryan Reynolds	4.4	.717	.189	.019	.116	.504	.932	.268	.362	.417	.779
Nick Gonzales	4.3	.829	.219	.025	.066	.313	.672	.287	.348	.404	.752
Oneil Cruz	4.2	.587	.165	.018	.153	.521	1.165	.250	.348	.430	.778
Jake Mangum	4.1	.887	.185	.023	.033	.218	.603	.293	.339	.379	.718
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.0	.644	.156	.013	.105	.398	.938	.255	.335	.393	.728
Jacob Gonzalez	3.9	.600	.186	.010	.101	.297	.611	.251	.316	.393	.709
Jared Triolo	3.8	.646	.155	.011	.051	.430	.705	.260	.352	.359	.710

Data notes: away starter Blade Tidwell: only 70 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 90F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections