Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

September 6, 2026 · Walbert Ureña vs Paul Skenes · 70°F

3.4% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Los Angeles Angels win

33.2%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

66.8%

Fair line (home)

-201

Proj. total

7.76

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Angels (mean 3.17)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.59)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.76

Over

46.4%

Under

42.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Angels	33.2%	+168	+201
Pittsburgh Pirates	66.8%	-184	-201

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Walbert Ureña RHP · Los Angeles Angels	4.7	4.3	5.0	2.7	2.4
Paul Skenes RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	5.3	6.6	4.3	1.5	1.5

Strikeout ladder

Walbert Ureña4+ 64%6+ 26%8+ 6%

Paul Skenes4+ 92%6+ 67%8+ 33%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Zach Neto	4.6	.562	.184	.018	.125	.333	1.495	.212	.286	.354	.640
Mike Trout	4.5	.522	.141	.006	.132	.626	1.485	.209	.328	.351	.679
Wade Meckler	4.4	.761	.176	.014	.043	.395	1.114	.248	.320	.331	.651
Vaughn Grissom	4.3	.687	.177	.004	.075	.278	1.005	.236	.295	.339	.634
Moisés Ballesteros	4.2	.639	.170	.006	.081	.331	.997	.232	.296	.342	.638
Christian Moore	4.1	.517	.139	.030	.071	.375	1.446	.204	.284	.316	.600
Josh Lowe	4.0	.540	.158	.012	.090	.306	1.278	.218	.281	.340	.621
Adam Frazier	3.9	.578	.144	.011	.038	.265	.926	.217	.281	.295	.577
Tyler Heineman	3.8	.559	.102	.021	.037	.232	.854	.209	.276	.284	.560

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Konnor Griffin	4.7	.880	.191	.035	.086	.418	1.021	.284	.361	.408	.769
Brandon Lowe	4.6	.645	.183	.012	.158	.552	1.104	.251	.348	.422	.770
Bryan Reynolds	4.5	.701	.188	.017	.100	.580	.964	.264	.370	.400	.770
Nick Gonzales	4.3	.842	.224	.025	.057	.361	.701	.292	.362	.406	.767
Oneil Cruz	4.3	.563	.169	.019	.140	.603	1.200	.247	.360	.421	.781
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.1	.522	.167	.010	.144	.557	1.149	.238	.349	.413	.761
Spencer Horwitz	4.0	.636	.197	.013	.076	.590	.616	.272	.388	.405	.793
Jacob Gonzalez	3.9	.586	.178	.013	.084	.348	.664	.244	.320	.373	.693
Henry Davis	3.8	.519	.137	.005	.097	.413	.830	.228	.327	.360	.687

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections