Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

September 5, 2026 · Yusei Kikuchi vs Braxton Ashcraft · 76°F

6.2% edge · Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels win

43.4%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

56.6%

Fair line (home)

-131

Proj. total

7.82

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Angels (mean 3.71)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.10)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.82

Over

47.3%

Under

52.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Angels	43.4%	+164	+131
Pittsburgh Pirates	56.6%	-179	-131

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Yusei Kikuchi LHP · Los Angeles Angels	4.8	5.3	4.9	1.7	2.1
Braxton Ashcraft RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	5.5	5.7	5.3	1.6	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Yusei Kikuchi4+ 80%6+ 45%8+ 16%

Braxton Ashcraft4+ 83%6+ 51%8+ 20%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Los Angeles Angels — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Zach Neto	4.7	.633	.209	.022	.142	.336	1.297	.234	.304	.392	.696
Mike Trout	4.6	.601	.155	.008	.156	.621	1.309	.234	.346	.396	.742
Wade Meckler	4.5	.840	.189	.013	.043	.394	.981	.265	.335	.350	.684
Vaughn Grissom	4.4	.771	.198	.005	.090	.267	.856	.260	.314	.377	.692
Moisés Ballesteros	4.3	.702	.174	.007	.096	.317	.848	.247	.306	.367	.673
Christian Moore	4.2	.567	.147	.033	.084	.375	1.293	.220	.298	.343	.641
Josh Lowe	4.1	.568	.174	.013	.106	.311	1.154	.230	.292	.368	.660
Denzer Guzman	4.0	.566	.160	.010	.100	.240	1.078	.226	.278	.356	.635
Adam Frazier	3.8	.633	.146	.010	.043	.248	.789	.235	.296	.318	.614

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Konnor Griffin	4.6	.825	.179	.036	.105	.340	1.167	.272	.335	.406	.741
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.5	.552	.173	.011	.198	.508	1.386	.236	.329	.436	.765
Bryan Reynolds	4.4	.691	.182	.012	.124	.432	1.100	.259	.342	.408	.750
Oneil Cruz	4.3	.546	.145	.023	.168	.503	1.352	.235	.330	.421	.750
Nick Gonzales	4.2	.780	.207	.019	.067	.293	.780	.280	.339	.397	.736
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.1	.600	.162	.014	.118	.390	1.112	.244	.321	.392	.713
Jared Triolo	4.0	.638	.155	.009	.064	.414	.871	.247	.332	.351	.682
Jake Mangum	3.9	.794	.154	.014	.037	.185	.719	.277	.322	.357	.679
Nick Yorke	3.7	.649	.155	.015	.069	.270	.847	.259	.318	.372	.690

Data notes: away starter Yusei Kikuchi: only 48 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections