Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

September 17, 2026 · Kyle Harrison vs Wilber Dotel · 77°F

5.9% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers win

51.2%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

48.8%

Fair line (home)

+105

Proj. total

8.04

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.18)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 3.85)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.04

Over

41.0%

Under

59.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	51.2%	-139	-105
Pittsburgh Pirates	48.8%	+128	+105

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Kyle Harrison LHP · Milwaukee Brewers	4.6	5.7	4.2	1.6	1.8
Wilber Dotel RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	2.2	1.6	2.2	1.0	0.9

Strikeout ladder

Kyle Harrison4+ 84%6+ 51%8+ 19%

Wilber Dotel4+ 6%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brice Turang	4.8	.754	.184	.020	.101	.612	1.074	.252	.349	.377	.727
Luis Lara	4.7	.786	.161	.035	.058	.491	.981	.249	.336	.346	.682
Jackson Chourio	4.6	.728	.219	.016	.163	.371	1.018	.268	.331	.444	.776
Andrew Vaughn	4.5	.695	.191	.016	.118	.418	.861	.254	.333	.398	.731
Gary Sánchez	4.4	.486	.133	.013	.159	.552	1.089	.211	.324	.380	.704
Joey Ortiz	4.3	.682	.173	.029	.079	.383	.768	.249	.321	.369	.691
Sal Frelick	4.2	.745	.185	.015	.067	.383	.555	.270	.344	.380	.724
Bo Naylor	4.1	.440	.145	.015	.125	.464	1.084	.203	.299	.357	.656
David Hamilton	4.0	.559	.119	.026	.075	.372	.960	.219	.297	.330	.627

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Konnor Griffin	4.6	.769	.168	.038	.099	.316	1.282	.256	.318	.386	.704
Oneil Cruz	4.5	.541	.147	.020	.181	.503	1.545	.227	.320	.413	.732
Bryan Reynolds	4.3	.642	.175	.013	.122	.409	1.190	.246	.328	.391	.719
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.3	.604	.158	.015	.126	.370	1.287	.234	.306	.381	.687
Brandon Lowe	4.1	.541	.149	.008	.184	.378	1.267	.236	.311	.429	.740
Nick Gonzales	4.0	.749	.188	.019	.064	.272	.823	.274	.332	.387	.719
Ronny Simon	3.9	.669	.160	.011	.062	.305	.885	.252	.316	.354	.670
Jared Triolo	3.8	.597	.143	.009	.063	.384	.914	.240	.324	.342	.666
Henry Davis	3.7	.462	.129	.005	.119	.321	.996	.216	.297	.365	.662

Data notes: home starter Wilber Dotel: only 67 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections