Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

September 15, 2026 · Jacob Misiorowski vs Lake Bachar · 70°F

11.6% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers win

53.9%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

46.1%

Fair line (home)

+117

Proj. total

7.76

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.19)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 3.58)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.76

Over

46.2%

Under

53.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	53.9%	-203	-117
Pittsburgh Pirates	46.1%	+184	+117

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jacob Misiorowski RHP · Milwaukee Brewers	5.3	7.3	4.4	2.1	1.8
Lake Bachar RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	2.2	2.4	2.0	1.0	0.8

Strikeout ladder

Jacob Misiorowski4+ 95%6+ 76%8+ 45%

Lake Bachar4+ 20%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Garrett Mitchell	4.9	.661	.190	.030	.111	.561	1.565	.233	.330	.370	.700
Jackson Chourio	4.8	.729	.206	.014	.159	.387	1.104	.256	.322	.420	.742
Brice Turang	4.6	.698	.169	.018	.092	.569	1.109	.242	.338	.361	.699
William Contreras	4.5	.713	.190	.006	.113	.575	.824	.261	.361	.400	.761
Jake Bauers	4.4	.510	.135	.015	.146	.681	1.293	.218	.346	.381	.727
Christian Yelich	4.3	.631	.147	.010	.106	.530	1.133	.239	.341	.369	.710
Luis Lara	4.2	.675	.147	.031	.043	.432	.935	.241	.328	.332	.660
Joey Ortiz	4.1	.644	.159	.028	.071	.359	.800	.243	.316	.359	.674
David Hamilton	4.0	.532	.121	.030	.077	.378	1.015	.212	.292	.328	.620

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Konnor Griffin	4.6	.725	.160	.036	.084	.335	1.446	.242	.311	.359	.669
Brandon Lowe	4.5	.533	.151	.008	.155	.436	1.516	.213	.297	.371	.668
Bryan Reynolds	4.3	.585	.153	.016	.098	.492	1.349	.225	.326	.352	.677
Oneil Cruz	4.3	.488	.136	.016	.142	.505	1.601	.211	.312	.371	.682
Nick Gonzales	4.2	.711	.183	.019	.054	.303	.986	.256	.322	.357	.678
Ryan O'Hearn	4.0	.600	.147	.009	.114	.394	1.028	.242	.325	.382	.707
Rafael Flores Jr.	3.9	.521	.132	.010	.095	.366	1.347	.214	.295	.338	.633
Spencer Horwitz	3.8	.541	.159	.007	.074	.483	.859	.239	.348	.360	.709
Jake Mangum	3.7	.679	.148	.015	.028	.200	.877	.253	.305	.329	.634

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections