Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

September 16, 2026 · Logan Henderson vs Jared Jones · 83°F

2.5% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers win

50.6%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

49.4%

Fair line (home)

+102

Proj. total

8.35

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.34)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.02)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.35

Over

52.3%

Under

47.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	50.6%	-118	-102
Pittsburgh Pirates	49.4%	+109	+102

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Logan Henderson RHP · Milwaukee Brewers	4.8	5.6	4.6	1.4	2.0
Jared Jones RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	4.6	5.2	4.3	1.9	1.9

Strikeout ladder

Logan Henderson4+ 83%6+ 49%8+ 18%

Jared Jones4+ 78%6+ 41%8+ 14%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brice Turang	4.8	.736	.178	.020	.111	.534	1.245	.244	.331	.373	.703
Jackson Chourio	4.7	.721	.216	.011	.173	.352	1.158	.258	.317	.432	.749
Jake Bauers	4.6	.541	.148	.013	.180	.654	1.399	.225	.342	.408	.750
William Contreras	4.5	.717	.189	.007	.136	.537	.871	.266	.358	.421	.779
Christian Yelich	4.4	.648	.153	.012	.120	.493	1.222	.240	.332	.379	.711
Joey Ortiz	4.3	.653	.170	.029	.087	.351	.871	.240	.307	.365	.672
Garrett Mitchell	4.2	.579	.160	.028	.099	.448	1.393	.234	.324	.373	.697
Andrew Vaughn	4.1	.620	.165	.014	.114	.334	.880	.246	.317	.391	.708
Cooper Pratt	4.0	.606	.127	.031	.068	.366	.867	.234	.313	.344	.657

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Konnor Griffin	4.5	.792	.173	.039	.119	.280	1.251	.267	.321	.412	.732
Brandon Lowe	4.4	.573	.169	.009	.217	.364	1.314	.240	.308	.448	.755
Bryan Reynolds	4.3	.647	.171	.014	.142	.405	1.163	.252	.330	.413	.743
Oneil Cruz	4.2	.524	.138	.018	.190	.445	1.435	.231	.317	.429	.746
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.1	.602	.154	.014	.145	.332	1.235	.242	.307	.406	.713
Ryan O'Hearn	4.0	.637	.151	.009	.143	.338	.886	.258	.326	.421	.747
Ronny Simon	3.9	.666	.158	.016	.071	.288	.853	.254	.314	.365	.679
Jacob Gonzalez	3.8	.523	.164	.009	.118	.253	.809	.233	.290	.386	.676
Jake Mangum	3.7	.705	.156	.019	.037	.172	.732	.266	.309	.355	.664

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections