Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

September 18, 2026 · Randy Dobnak vs Paul Skenes · 72°F

3.9% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Kansas City Royals win

33.0%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

67.0%

Fair line (home)

-203

Proj. total

8.75

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 3.60)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 5.14)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.75

Over

48.0%

Under

52.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	33.0%	+166	+203
Pittsburgh Pirates	67.0%	-181	-203

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Randy Dobnak RHP · Kansas City Royals	4.7	3.1	6.0	2.0	2.8
Paul Skenes RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	5.3	5.6	4.6	1.4	1.7

Strikeout ladder

Randy Dobnak4+ 37%6+ 8%8+ 1%

Paul Skenes4+ 83%6+ 50%8+ 18%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.550	.194	.018	.137	.423	1.480	.214	.290	.366	.656
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.5	.718	.221	.025	.129	.383	.970	.265	.334	.425	.759
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.5	.625	.187	.015	.133	.395	.871	.239	.313	.393	.706
Maikel Garcia	4.3	.733	.196	.031	.067	.343	.826	.258	.320	.374	.693
Michael Massey	4.2	.683	.188	.010	.099	.191	.903	.244	.283	.369	.652
Salvador Perez	4.1	.606	.150	.005	.127	.184	.994	.230	.278	.369	.648
John Rave	4.0	.519	.144	.024	.083	.349	1.156	.212	.286	.333	.619
Nick Loftin	3.9	.543	.151	.022	.058	.359	.805	.222	.305	.328	.634
Kyle Isbel	3.8	.573	.141	.029	.054	.222	.941	.227	.280	.330	.610

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Konnor Griffin	4.8	.996	.221	.050	.099	.324	.854	.314	.371	.456	.827
Brandon Lowe	4.6	.748	.220	.009	.190	.447	.934	.281	.357	.476	.833
Bryan Reynolds	4.5	.796	.216	.017	.110	.490	.813	.288	.376	.435	.811
Oneil Cruz	4.4	.692	.182	.023	.162	.528	1.079	.275	.368	.460	.828
Nick Gonzales	4.3	.909	.248	.025	.053	.301	.548	.313	.371	.429	.801
Ryan O'Hearn	4.2	.796	.203	.009	.117	.400	.598	.300	.375	.453	.828
Ronny Simon	4.1	.819	.206	.018	.058	.338	.590	.296	.361	.408	.769
Spencer Horwitz	4.0	.714	.204	.011	.083	.473	.512	.293	.386	.431	.817
Henry Davis	3.9	.583	.154	.006	.111	.351	.689	.248	.330	.392	.723

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections