Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

September 19, 2026 · Noah Cameron vs Bubba Chandler · 73°F

1.6% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Kansas City Royals win

46.6%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

53.4%

Fair line (home)

-115

Proj. total

8.99

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 4.45)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.54)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.99

Over

50.7%

Under

42.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	46.6%	+103	+115
Pittsburgh Pirates	53.4%	-112	-115

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Noah Cameron LHP · Kansas City Royals	5.3	5.0	5.9	1.7	2.5
Bubba Chandler RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	4.9	4.1	4.9	2.2	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Noah Cameron4+ 75%6+ 39%8+ 12%

Bubba Chandler4+ 60%6+ 22%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.9	.609	.207	.019	.158	.587	1.270	.234	.332	.404	.736
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.7	.770	.227	.025	.155	.504	.823	.281	.364	.458	.823
Jac Caglianone	4.6	.697	.203	.016	.178	.364	1.140	.260	.328	.443	.771
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.5	.666	.193	.017	.153	.508	.693	.259	.349	.432	.781
Michael Massey	4.4	.729	.210	.011	.110	.257	.753	.257	.306	.393	.699
Nick Loftin	4.3	.634	.184	.023	.068	.468	.711	.240	.332	.354	.686
John Rave	4.2	.569	.154	.024	.100	.450	1.003	.228	.315	.363	.678
Kyle Isbel	4.1	.644	.154	.032	.070	.294	.856	.240	.302	.354	.656
Isaac Collins	4.0	.559	.162	.026	.055	.516	.858	.236	.346	.348	.694

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Konnor Griffin	4.7	.892	.197	.044	.102	.302	1.040	.286	.343	.423	.766
Oneil Cruz	4.6	.645	.180	.024	.183	.501	1.342	.256	.343	.449	.791
Bryan Reynolds	4.5	.741	.204	.013	.120	.412	.999	.271	.350	.420	.770
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.3	.697	.182	.014	.134	.376	1.095	.260	.329	.416	.744
Brandon Lowe	4.2	.600	.178	.010	.191	.387	1.059	.256	.329	.458	.787
Nick Gonzales	4.1	.829	.227	.023	.061	.274	.673	.299	.354	.418	.773
Ryan O'Hearn	4.0	.721	.182	.009	.126	.360	.709	.286	.357	.445	.802
Ronny Simon	3.9	.733	.187	.011	.060	.293	.701	.276	.337	.384	.721
Jake Mangum	3.8	.804	.175	.013	.035	.167	.622	.287	.329	.373	.702

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections