Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

September 20, 2026 · Michael Wacha vs Lake Bachar · 70°F

9.9% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Kansas City Royals win

39.0%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

61.0%

Fair line (home)

-156

Proj. total

8.59

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 3.87)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.73)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.59

Over

46.2%

Under

53.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	39.0%	-100	+156
Pittsburgh Pirates	61.0%	-109	-156

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Michael Wacha RHP · Kansas City Royals	5.6	4.9	6.4	1.7	2.8
Lake Bachar RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	2.2	2.0	2.1	0.8	0.8

Strikeout ladder

Michael Wacha4+ 73%6+ 37%8+ 11%

Lake Bachar4+ 13%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Maikel Garcia	4.8	.804	.218	.032	.071	.468	.791	.263	.339	.379	.718
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.7	.735	.235	.025	.146	.473	.852	.276	.357	.451	.808
Jac Caglianone	4.5	.666	.183	.014	.163	.361	1.185	.249	.320	.420	.740
Salvador Perez	4.4	.649	.172	.005	.143	.238	.946	.235	.291	.384	.675
Michael Massey	4.3	.708	.190	.012	.101	.245	.820	.250	.298	.377	.675
Nick Loftin	4.2	.606	.179	.021	.064	.458	.734	.235	.329	.347	.675
John Rave	4.1	.547	.153	.023	.086	.430	1.036	.222	.308	.347	.655
Luke Maile	4.0	.524	.136	.009	.058	.413	1.189	.206	.300	.300	.600
Tyler Tolbert	3.9	.595	.144	.011	.043	.278	.998	.223	.289	.306	.594

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Konnor Griffin	4.7	.913	.209	.042	.106	.276	.981	.294	.344	.435	.779
Brandon Lowe	4.5	.668	.191	.010	.208	.375	1.097	.260	.326	.462	.787
Bryan Reynolds	4.4	.744	.201	.021	.128	.419	.927	.276	.354	.434	.788
Oneil Cruz	4.3	.625	.168	.022	.188	.449	1.220	.260	.343	.462	.804
Nick Gonzales	4.2	.849	.231	.022	.066	.260	.653	.298	.351	.419	.770
Ryan O'Hearn	4.1	.748	.181	.009	.134	.336	.711	.286	.351	.446	.796
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.0	.654	.166	.017	.129	.326	.952	.264	.328	.424	.752
Spencer Horwitz	3.9	.680	.196	.012	.097	.418	.576	.287	.372	.435	.807
Jake Mangum	3.8	.822	.167	.019	.037	.166	.586	.293	.334	.382	.716

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections