St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

September 22, 2026 · Andre Pallante vs Jared Jones · 58°F

0.5% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals win

39.6%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

60.4%

Fair line (home)

-153

Proj. total

8.22

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 3.71)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.50)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.22

Over

51.3%

Under

37.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	39.6%	+151	+153
Pittsburgh Pirates	60.4%	-164	-153

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Andre Pallante RHP · St. Louis Cardinals	5.0	4.0	5.9	2.1	2.5
Jared Jones RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	4.7	4.8	4.3	1.6	1.6

Strikeout ladder

Andre Pallante4+ 58%6+ 21%8+ 4%

Jared Jones4+ 73%6+ 35%8+ 9%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.8	.723	.163	.006	.104	.493	.950	.239	.333	.356	.689
Iván Herrera	4.6	.705	.159	.008	.106	.504	1.014	.244	.346	.367	.713
Alec Burleson	4.5	.746	.178	.008	.132	.382	.862	.259	.328	.403	.731
Jordan Walker	4.4	.626	.186	.006	.125	.355	1.307	.234	.302	.376	.677
Leo Bernal	4.3	.648	.143	.011	.093	.317	1.093	.225	.287	.337	.624
Bryan Torres	4.2	.732	.133	.026	.040	.468	.909	.251	.339	.333	.672
Thomas Saggese	4.1	.629	.158	.012	.079	.267	1.163	.231	.288	.341	.629
Nathan Church	4.0	.666	.136	.019	.068	.247	.764	.240	.295	.343	.638
Masyn Winn	3.9	.598	.150	.014	.059	.315	.859	.234	.305	.335	.640

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Konnor Griffin	4.7	.956	.218	.047	.071	.324	.922	.300	.358	.422	.780
Brandon Lowe	4.6	.723	.206	.010	.143	.446	1.035	.264	.342	.424	.766
Bryan Reynolds	4.5	.766	.216	.017	.084	.483	.877	.276	.364	.404	.768
Oneil Cruz	4.3	.659	.181	.024	.123	.502	1.152	.259	.351	.415	.766
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.3	.734	.192	.015	.097	.389	.961	.271	.342	.404	.746
Ryan O'Hearn	4.2	.781	.187	.009	.091	.375	.659	.286	.358	.414	.771
Ronny Simon	4.0	.778	.197	.019	.042	.341	.634	.283	.349	.381	.731
Spencer Horwitz	3.9	.673	.200	.011	.065	.482	.558	.279	.376	.401	.777
Jacob Gonzalez	3.8	.612	.195	.009	.067	.277	.607	.252	.314	.370	.684

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections