St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

September 23, 2026 · Matthew Liberatore vs Lake Bachar · 59°F

0.5% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

St. Louis Cardinals win

43.4%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

56.6%

Fair line (home)

-130

Proj. total

8.1

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 3.91)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.20)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.1

Over

49.8%

Under

38.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	43.4%	+123	+130
Pittsburgh Pirates	56.6%	-134	-130

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Matthew Liberatore LHP · St. Louis Cardinals	4.9	4.5	5.4	1.6	2.2
Lake Bachar RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	2.2	2.0	2.0	0.9	0.7

Strikeout ladder

Matthew Liberatore4+ 67%6+ 28%8+ 7%

Lake Bachar4+ 12%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.8	.733	.160	.006	.102	.562	.889	.242	.346	.357	.703
Iván Herrera	4.7	.713	.172	.007	.100	.563	.939	.249	.360	.370	.731
Alec Burleson	4.6	.752	.186	.007	.131	.424	.812	.261	.337	.405	.742
Jordan Walker	4.5	.660	.187	.009	.124	.391	1.243	.242	.316	.385	.701
Leo Bernal	4.4	.648	.152	.013	.095	.354	1.043	.228	.296	.344	.640
Nolan Gorman	4.3	.455	.108	.004	.124	.517	1.512	.186	.289	.318	.607
José Fermín	4.2	.629	.179	.003	.061	.458	.584	.241	.336	.342	.678
Nathan Church	4.0	.691	.146	.019	.070	.271	.705	.249	.307	.354	.661
Masyn Winn	3.9	.618	.154	.012	.052	.348	.819	.237	.314	.331	.646

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Konnor Griffin	4.6	.895	.193	.042	.088	.313	1.044	.286	.345	.413	.758
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.5	.724	.199	.015	.124	.416	1.136	.261	.333	.408	.741
Bryan Reynolds	4.4	.711	.195	.012	.104	.416	1.009	.261	.342	.397	.739
Brandon Lowe	4.3	.605	.172	.011	.164	.404	1.121	.246	.323	.424	.746
Nick Gonzales	4.2	.824	.221	.020	.055	.276	.694	.289	.346	.399	.745
Ronny Simon	4.1	.760	.189	.013	.056	.317	.747	.272	.335	.374	.709
Ryan O'Hearn	4.0	.696	.170	.010	.108	.364	.749	.275	.349	.418	.767
Jared Triolo	3.9	.659	.157	.012	.052	.391	.783	.255	.337	.353	.689
Jake Mangum	3.8	.783	.173	.016	.031	.173	.642	.284	.327	.368	.696

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections