St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

September 24, 2026 · Kyle Leahy vs Paul Skenes · 59°F

1.2% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

St. Louis Cardinals win

39.5%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

60.6%

Fair line (home)

-153

Proj. total

7.62

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 3.44)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.19)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.62

Over

45.7%

Under

42.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	39.5%	+141	+153
Pittsburgh Pirates	60.6%	-153	-153

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Kyle Leahy RHP · St. Louis Cardinals	4.5	4.0	5.0	1.6	2.0
Paul Skenes RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	5.2	5.7	4.6	1.5	1.6

Strikeout ladder

Kyle Leahy4+ 58%6+ 22%8+ 4%

Paul Skenes4+ 84%6+ 51%8+ 20%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.7	.740	.159	.007	.091	.453	.999	.240	.327	.347	.674
Iván Herrera	4.6	.684	.155	.008	.097	.448	1.085	.235	.330	.349	.680
Alec Burleson	4.5	.726	.183	.008	.117	.337	.921	.252	.315	.385	.700
Jordan Walker	4.4	.632	.184	.007	.106	.304	1.364	.230	.290	.358	.648
Leo Bernal	4.3	.646	.143	.013	.083	.285	1.142	.224	.282	.330	.612
Bryan Torres	4.2	.724	.130	.023	.037	.423	.941	.246	.328	.324	.652
Thomas Saggese	4.0	.617	.156	.010	.072	.247	1.209	.227	.282	.331	.613
Nathan Church	3.9	.664	.146	.018	.058	.225	.782	.242	.294	.339	.633
Masyn Winn	3.8	.587	.157	.011	.050	.281	.904	.231	.296	.326	.622

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Oneil Cruz	4.6	.646	.179	.022	.150	.525	1.362	.246	.338	.413	.750
Konnor Griffin	4.5	.846	.196	.049	.074	.298	.995	.281	.339	.406	.745
Brandon Lowe	4.4	.648	.176	.008	.162	.393	1.111	.251	.324	.421	.745
Ryan O'Hearn	4.3	.760	.199	.009	.106	.382	.782	.278	.350	.418	.768
Nick Gonzales	4.2	.819	.222	.021	.050	.268	.700	.288	.343	.395	.738
Ronny Simon	4.1	.757	.184	.018	.051	.330	.740	.271	.337	.371	.708
Spencer Horwitz	4.0	.661	.190	.008	.069	.477	.633	.269	.365	.389	.753
Jake Mangum	3.9	.812	.174	.020	.030	.188	.644	.286	.331	.371	.702
Henry Davis	3.7	.520	.145	.004	.099	.325	.828	.229	.309	.364	.673

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections