Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

July 7, 2026 · Zac Gallen vs Germán Márquez · 69°F

1.3% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks win

49.3%

San Diego Padres win

50.7%

Fair line (home)

-103

Proj. total

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.63)San Diego Padres (mean 4.38)

O/U line

Proj. total

Over

40.4%

Under

48.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	49.3%	+104	+103
San Diego Padres	50.7%	-113	-103

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ketel Marte	4.9	.749	.210	.026	.210	.484	.764	.276	.355	.482	.837
Geraldo Perdomo	4.8	.793	.170	.037	.088	.579	.618	.264	.362	.387	.749
Corbin Carroll	4.6	.593	.177	.094	.191	.535	.937	.260	.354	.492	.845
Gabriel Moreno	4.5	.794	.203	.012	.122	.463	.757	.280	.359	.427	.786
Max Kepler	4.4	.638	.165	.018	.125	.427	.873	.239	.319	.385	.703
Nolan Arenado	4.3	.674	.180	.010	.131	.333	.680	.252	.318	.403	.721
Pavin Smith	4.2	.580	.161	.013	.104	.536	1.046	.235	.336	.371	.707
James McCann	4.1	.646	.176	.008	.096	.209	1.022	.240	.287	.365	.652
Tim Tawa	4.0	.546	.152	.021	.115	.339	.987	.231	.301	.380	.681

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.7	.813	.200	.018	.166	.485	.833	.291	.371	.469	.840
Jackson Merrill	4.5	.756	.221	.036	.145	.312	.876	.276	.330	.450	.780
Xander Bogaerts	4.4	.828	.179	.005	.105	.371	.701	.278	.343	.403	.747
Manny Machado	4.3	.707	.188	.003	.160	.361	.797	.269	.333	.440	.774
Gavin Sheets	4.2	.650	.186	.007	.129	.371	.808	.255	.327	.410	.737
Jake Cronenworth	4.1	.621	.160	.016	.081	.443	.740	.245	.339	.366	.705
Luis Campusano	4.0	.647	.164	.006	.128	.368	.756	.262	.336	.418	.754
Samad Taylor	3.9	.677	.138	.026	.065	.339	.879	.257	.327	.367	.694
Sung-Mun Song	3.8	.692	.142	.012	.070	.264	.628	.262	.316	.369	.685

Data notes: home starter Germán Márquez: only 60 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections