Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

July 8, 2026 · Jose Cabrera vs Michael King · 70°F

2.1% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks win

45.6%

San Diego Padres win

54.4%

Fair line (home)

-119

Proj. total

8.77

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.30)San Diego Padres (mean 4.46)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.77

Over

45.8%

Under

54.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	45.6%	+126	+119
San Diego Padres	54.4%	-136	-119

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ketel Marte	4.8	.718	.197	.024	.182	.518	.874	.263	.351	.449	.800
Ildemaro Vargas	4.7	.834	.175	.043	.082	.255	.591	.257	.305	.372	.677
Corbin Carroll	4.6	.550	.170	.090	.175	.549	1.032	.247	.346	.466	.812
Gabriel Moreno	4.5	.747	.196	.013	.103	.474	.873	.266	.350	.400	.749
Max Kepler	4.4	.602	.170	.016	.113	.434	.970	.231	.316	.371	.686
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	4.3	.678	.182	.015	.116	.286	.781	.252	.310	.395	.705
Nolan Arenado	4.2	.615	.167	.009	.117	.339	.760	.240	.310	.382	.692
Pavin Smith	4.1	.514	.143	.011	.093	.538	1.137	.218	.326	.344	.670
Tommy Troy	3.9	.593	.151	.026	.052	.381	.973	.233	.315	.335	.650

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.7	.823	.202	.017	.160	.522	.712	.295	.381	.470	.851
Jackson Merrill	4.5	.758	.225	.036	.141	.338	.766	.278	.337	.451	.788
Xander Bogaerts	4.4	.835	.183	.006	.109	.408	.601	.284	.355	.414	.770
Gavin Sheets	4.3	.661	.197	.006	.130	.412	.739	.257	.334	.411	.745
Jake Cronenworth	4.2	.634	.173	.018	.087	.490	.685	.250	.352	.378	.730
Luis Campusano	4.1	.677	.168	.006	.131	.414	.671	.268	.347	.424	.771
Miguel Andujar	4.0	.797	.180	.021	.098	.236	.500	.293	.339	.430	.769
Jase Bowen	3.9	.587	.137	.032	.088	.275	.970	.236	.298	.366	.664
Sung-Mun Song	3.8	.691	.141	.011	.068	.279	.553	.262	.320	.367	.687

Data notes: away starter Jose Cabrera: only 36 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Jose Cabrera: only 24 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections