Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

July 10, 2026 · Shane Bieber vs JP Sears · 65°F

2.5% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

49.6%

San Diego Padres win

50.4%

Fair line (home)

-102

Proj. total

8.4

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.30)San Diego Padres (mean 4.10)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.4

Over

44.8%

Under

55.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	49.6%	+108	+102
San Diego Padres	50.4%	-117	-102

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ernie Clement	4.8	.887	.229	.021	.099	.197	.470	.272	.307	.397	.705
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.7	.754	.199	.004	.214	.516	.611	.287	.373	.495	.868
Kazuma Okamoto	4.5	.587	.163	.005	.234	.374	1.038	.240	.312	.453	.765
George Springer	4.4	.622	.160	.012	.183	.438	.879	.247	.329	.432	.761
Alejandro Kirk	4.3	.712	.163	.006	.135	.428	.550	.262	.341	.412	.753
Daulton Varsho	4.2	.526	.160	.027	.178	.334	1.005	.231	.299	.425	.724
Luis Urías	4.1	.593	.149	.011	.119	.376	.736	.238	.321	.381	.703
Myles Straw	4.0	.650	.137	.012	.046	.314	.774	.230	.295	.312	.606
Jonatan Clase	3.9	.502	.143	.009	.082	.287	1.093	.206	.271	.320	.590

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.5	.795	.210	.014	.168	.392	.842	.289	.356	.469	.825
Jackson Merrill	4.4	.707	.199	.031	.147	.261	.933	.261	.308	.430	.738
Xander Bogaerts	4.3	.802	.179	.006	.102	.346	.734	.275	.337	.401	.738
Manny Machado	4.2	.658	.182	.003	.178	.336	.820	.263	.324	.450	.774
Gavin Sheets	4.1	.631	.182	.007	.141	.329	.817	.256	.321	.420	.741
Ty France	4.0	.692	.161	.014	.112	.240	.776	.266	.328	.409	.737
Miguel Andujar	3.9	.753	.181	.020	.097	.193	.578	.285	.325	.424	.748
Jase Bowen	3.8	.542	.137	.029	.087	.215	1.110	.224	.273	.352	.625
Rodolfo Durán	3.7	.500	.145	.015	.100	.200	.880	.221	.270	.360	.630

Data notes: home starter JP Sears: only 16 BF vs LHB this season · home starter JP Sears: only 51 BF vs RHB this season · away starter Shane Bieber: only 35 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Shane Bieber: only 29 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections