Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

July 9, 2026 · Merrill Kelly vs Griffin Canning · 67°F

0.4% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks win

47.1%

San Diego Padres win

52.9%

Fair line (home)

-112

Proj. total

9.04

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.55)San Diego Padres (mean 4.50)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.04

Over

40.8%

Under

49.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	47.1%	+110	+112
San Diego Padres	52.9%	-119	-112

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ketel Marte	4.9	.735	.203	.026	.175	.563	.835	.267	.358	.449	.807
Geraldo Perdomo	4.8	.765	.163	.040	.083	.648	.649	.259	.368	.379	.747
Corbin Carroll	4.7	.580	.172	.089	.174	.592	1.000	.253	.357	.470	.827
Gabriel Moreno	4.5	.770	.200	.011	.108	.503	.832	.271	.356	.407	.763
Max Kepler	4.4	.628	.176	.018	.110	.465	.940	.236	.322	.374	.696
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	4.3	.707	.185	.015	.120	.302	.761	.257	.314	.400	.714
Nolan Arenado	4.2	.630	.169	.008	.116	.368	.715	.242	.315	.382	.697
Tommy Troy	4.1	.647	.161	.029	.059	.403	.964	.243	.323	.351	.674
Tim Tawa	4.0	.514	.146	.022	.104	.376	1.035	.218	.297	.358	.655

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.6	.807	.204	.017	.173	.489	.784	.292	.371	.476	.848
Jackson Merrill	4.5	.748	.208	.035	.147	.336	.849	.273	.330	.446	.776
Xander Bogaerts	4.4	.836	.186	.006	.108	.375	.671	.283	.348	.413	.761
Manny Machado	4.3	.709	.181	.004	.175	.365	.770	.272	.336	.453	.789
Gavin Sheets	4.2	.623	.194	.007	.131	.368	.796	.250	.321	.408	.729
Jake Cronenworth	4.1	.616	.162	.017	.088	.443	.738	.246	.339	.373	.713
Luis Campusano	4.0	.642	.172	.005	.134	.381	.727	.266	.341	.428	.769
Miguel Andujar	3.9	.760	.179	.023	.095	.213	.537	.289	.332	.429	.761
Sung-Mun Song	3.8	.678	.138	.012	.067	.271	.608	.257	.313	.361	.675

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections