Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

July 11, 2026 · Trey Yesavage vs Walker Buehler · 71°F

0.6% edge · San Diego Padres

Toronto Blue Jays win

48.9%

San Diego Padres win

51.1%

Fair line (home)

-104

Proj. total

8.99

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.57)San Diego Padres (mean 4.42)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.99

Over

44.0%

Under

48.4%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	48.9%	-102	+104
San Diego Padres	51.1%	-106	-104

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ernie Clement	4.8	.923	.253	.020	.086	.236	.476	.280	.320	.400	.720
Nathan Lukes	4.7	.856	.207	.018	.096	.420	.736	.276	.347	.400	.746
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.6	.757	.200	.004	.179	.569	.625	.285	.381	.471	.852
George Springer	4.5	.659	.164	.012	.165	.499	.865	.252	.342	.424	.766
Kazuma Okamoto	4.4	.582	.168	.005	.194	.416	1.022	.241	.321	.433	.755
Daulton Varsho	4.3	.533	.166	.031	.162	.400	1.004	.231	.309	.415	.724
Alejandro Kirk	4.2	.695	.158	.006	.131	.473	.530	.269	.357	.422	.780
Andrés Giménez	4.1	.655	.164	.016	.090	.237	.740	.247	.308	.371	.679
Jonatan Clase	4.0	.521	.147	.011	.079	.349	1.106	.211	.286	.323	.610

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.7	.736	.192	.013	.181	.547	.959	.276	.367	.464	.831
Jackson Merrill	4.5	.670	.193	.029	.155	.358	1.047	.252	.315	.424	.739
Xander Bogaerts	4.4	.765	.172	.004	.117	.454	.840	.269	.349	.404	.752
Manny Machado	4.3	.622	.168	.003	.190	.451	.943	.255	.335	.447	.782
Gavin Sheets	4.2	.587	.174	.004	.152	.439	.924	.245	.330	.415	.745
Ty France	4.1	.659	.154	.013	.120	.298	.872	.256	.329	.401	.731
Jake Cronenworth	4.0	.552	.150	.013	.094	.483	.842	.234	.339	.367	.706
Luis Campusano	3.9	.574	.144	.006	.135	.444	.816	.252	.343	.417	.759
Sung-Mun Song	3.8	.614	.133	.011	.078	.324	.717	.244	.311	.357	.668

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections