Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

July 28, 2026 · Michael Lorenzen vs Michael King · 71°F

2.2% edge · Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies win

35.0%

San Diego Padres win

65.0%

Fair line (home)

-185

Proj. total

9.88

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Colorado Rockies (mean 4.32)San Diego Padres (mean 5.56)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.88

Over

58.3%

Under

34.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Colorado Rockies	35.0%	+198	+185
San Diego Padres	65.0%	-219	-185

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.827	.175	.061	.107	.342	.876	.267	.330	.408	.738
Mickey Moniak	4.7	.658	.179	.051	.201	.266	1.225	.249	.298	.451	.750
Hunter Goodman	4.6	.578	.186	.020	.229	.345	1.333	.243	.307	.462	.768
TJ Rumfield	4.5	.709	.184	.015	.119	.424	.839	.259	.338	.403	.741
Kyle Karros	4.3	.692	.200	.020	.089	.476	.990	.261	.349	.394	.743
Cole Carrigg	4.3	.673	.148	.063	.092	.328	.989	.252	.319	.395	.714
Troy Johnston	4.1	.665	.185	.016	.088	.315	.883	.254	.322	.381	.703
Edouard Julien	4.0	.551	.131	.016	.087	.556	1.159	.228	.342	.352	.694
Ezequiel Tovar	3.9	.567	.186	.016	.108	.216	1.026	.238	.285	.386	.671

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.8	.904	.247	.017	.193	.485	.757	.321	.397	.524	.921
Jake Cronenworth	4.7	.771	.210	.023	.117	.507	.746	.276	.368	.425	.793
Manny Machado	4.5	.783	.215	.002	.216	.413	.759	.295	.362	.506	.868
Ty France	4.4	.841	.203	.020	.137	.285	.722	.299	.364	.462	.826
Jackson Merrill	4.3	.770	.227	.034	.165	.289	.759	.298	.349	.495	.844
Luis Rengifo	4.2	.863	.173	.019	.103	.302	.573	.299	.356	.433	.789
Gavin Sheets	4.1	.672	.207	.007	.152	.383	.692	.282	.356	.466	.821
Xander Bogaerts	4.0	.803	.186	.004	.111	.360	.558	.306	.374	.453	.827
Luis Campusano	3.9	.702	.183	.006	.147	.383	.631	.299	.375	.483	.857

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections