Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

July 12, 2026 · Kevin Gausman vs Germán Márquez · 71°F

4.1% edge · San Diego Padres

Toronto Blue Jays win

50.5%

San Diego Padres win

49.5%

Fair line (home)

+102

Proj. total

8.42

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.38)San Diego Padres (mean 4.04)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.42

Over

44.8%

Under

55.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	50.5%	-126	-102
San Diego Padres	49.5%	+116	+102

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ernie Clement	4.8	.920	.248	.019	.099	.213	.448	.283	.319	.411	.729
Nathan Lukes	4.7	.850	.212	.016	.103	.389	.700	.278	.344	.409	.752
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.6	.762	.209	.004	.202	.530	.572	.295	.382	.500	.883
Kazuma Okamoto	4.5	.601	.175	.004	.211	.405	.978	.247	.323	.451	.774
Daulton Varsho	4.4	.548	.171	.031	.176	.371	.980	.234	.306	.427	.733
Brandon Valenzuela	4.3	.561	.145	.007	.117	.373	1.065	.216	.290	.349	.639
Sean Keys	4.1	.492	.153	.010	.151	.421	1.141	.220	.311	.391	.702
Jonatan Clase	4.0	.534	.152	.014	.085	.349	1.088	.215	.289	.334	.624
Andrés Giménez	3.9	.642	.155	.015	.092	.222	.692	.251	.310	.380	.690

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.5	.765	.195	.011	.175	.422	.920	.280	.352	.461	.813
Jackson Merrill	4.4	.684	.205	.030	.150	.271	1.013	.258	.306	.431	.737
Xander Bogaerts	4.3	.758	.178	.005	.104	.363	.814	.265	.330	.391	.721
Manny Machado	4.2	.628	.176	.003	.193	.351	.900	.259	.322	.455	.778
Gavin Sheets	4.1	.584	.175	.005	.142	.336	.902	.241	.308	.404	.712
Ty France	4.0	.662	.157	.014	.121	.233	.840	.258	.317	.407	.723
Jake Cronenworth	3.9	.562	.152	.015	.098	.387	.829	.239	.324	.376	.700
Rodolfo Durán	3.8	.519	.143	.015	.106	.225	.957	.222	.274	.362	.635
Sung-Mun Song	3.7	.636	.127	.010	.076	.261	.688	.250	.306	.360	.667

Data notes: home starter Germán Márquez: only 68 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections