Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

July 29, 2026 · Gabriel Hughes vs Kyle Hart · 72°F

6.1% edge · San Diego Padres

Colorado Rockies win

36.1%

San Diego Padres win

63.9%

Fair line (home)

-177

Proj. total

9.12

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Colorado Rockies (mean 4.00)San Diego Padres (mean 5.12)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.12

Over

51.8%

Under

48.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Colorado Rockies	36.1%	+132	+177
San Diego Padres	63.9%	-144	-177

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.7	.798	.170	.070	.090	.332	.876	.261	.324	.396	.719
Cole Carrigg	4.6	.720	.167	.055	.086	.345	1.071	.244	.310	.372	.682
Hunter Goodman	4.5	.565	.196	.019	.224	.325	1.321	.242	.304	.461	.765
TJ Rumfield	4.4	.694	.182	.013	.113	.428	.833	.256	.338	.396	.734
Willi Castro	4.3	.650	.159	.016	.082	.341	1.106	.235	.314	.348	.662
Tyler Freeman	4.2	.761	.166	.018	.056	.319	.596	.267	.344	.365	.709
Mickey Moniak	4.1	.574	.156	.041	.162	.233	1.078	.245	.294	.435	.729
Ezequiel Tovar	4.0	.577	.179	.018	.103	.217	1.023	.236	.283	.377	.660
Brett Sullivan	3.8	.541	.161	.024	.073	.272	.724	.225	.285	.346	.631

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.7	.907	.243	.018	.187	.473	.772	.324	.398	.524	.922
Jake Cronenworth	4.6	.754	.211	.019	.108	.477	.797	.270	.359	.412	.771
Manny Machado	4.5	.783	.222	.004	.205	.390	.778	.298	.361	.505	.867
Ty France	4.4	.836	.191	.017	.126	.269	.749	.294	.358	.446	.804
Jackson Merrill	4.3	.748	.228	.033	.141	.284	.797	.290	.341	.471	.813
Luis Rengifo	4.2	.847	.170	.019	.087	.279	.585	.293	.347	.415	.761
Gavin Sheets	4.0	.670	.201	.008	.141	.355	.720	.279	.348	.453	.802
Xander Bogaerts	3.9	.803	.176	.006	.097	.334	.592	.303	.367	.437	.805
Freddy Fermin	3.8	.694	.166	.004	.088	.289	.656	.272	.333	.397	.730

Data notes: home starter Kyle Hart: only 73 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Gabriel Hughes: only 50 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Gabriel Hughes: only 27 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections