San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

July 31, 2026 · Carson Whisenhunt vs Bradgley Rodriguez · 75°F

0.4% edge · San Diego Padres

San Francisco Giants win

42.0%

San Diego Padres win

58.0%

Fair line (home)

-138

Proj. total

8.19

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 3.86)San Diego Padres (mean 4.33)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.19

Over

42.6%

Under

57.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	42.0%	+131	+138
San Diego Padres	58.0%	-142	-138

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luis Arraez	4.8	1.044	.193	.039	.047	.310	.247	.299	.350	.393	.743
Heliot Ramos	4.7	.689	.166	.026	.136	.395	1.245	.242	.315	.391	.706
Bryce Eldridge	4.5	.591	.175	.005	.135	.511	1.378	.226	.318	.373	.692
Rafael Devers	4.4	.539	.175	.008	.170	.578	1.202	.233	.338	.415	.754
Jung Hoo Lee	4.3	.760	.197	.044	.060	.338	.522	.268	.331	.385	.716
Willy Adames	4.2	.495	.156	.009	.146	.489	1.159	.216	.312	.380	.692
Grant McCray	4.1	.515	.148	.025	.074	.386	1.278	.205	.285	.318	.603
Drew Cavanaugh	4.0	.503	.137	.006	.069	.433	1.260	.204	.302	.305	.607
Christian Koss	3.9	.600	.160	.011	.058	.210	.937	.228	.280	.326	.606

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.6	.781	.215	.015	.155	.535	.762	.289	.378	.465	.842
Luis Rengifo	4.5	.821	.168	.011	.081	.319	.654	.261	.321	.365	.686
Manny Machado	4.4	.686	.180	.004	.171	.445	.773	.265	.342	.443	.786
Ty France	4.3	.744	.170	.016	.105	.313	.743	.268	.342	.403	.745
Jackson Merrill	4.2	.667	.193	.031	.128	.333	.791	.266	.329	.433	.761
Luis Campusano	4.1	.647	.162	.006	.130	.462	.718	.263	.353	.421	.774
Xander Bogaerts	4.0	.710	.161	.005	.090	.388	.615	.271	.348	.395	.743
Freddy Fermin	3.9	.639	.153	.005	.083	.340	.664	.252	.323	.369	.693
Jase Bowen	3.7	.530	.132	.028	.079	.274	.989	.224	.287	.347	.635

Data notes: away starter Carson Whisenhunt: only 16 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Carson Whisenhunt: only 51 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections