San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

August 2, 2026 · Landen Roupp vs Kyle Hart · 73°F

3.3% edge · San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants win

45.0%

San Diego Padres win

55.0%

Fair line (home)

-122

Proj. total

7.93

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 3.84)San Diego Padres (mean 4.09)

O/U line

Proj. total

7.93

Over

40.4%

Under

51.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	45.0%	+135	+122
San Diego Padres	55.0%	-147	-122

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luis Arraez	4.8	1.032	.197	.043	.046	.288	.234	.297	.345	.392	.737
Bryce Eldridge	4.7	.609	.177	.004	.137	.495	1.405	.225	.313	.370	.683
Heliot Ramos	4.5	.670	.165	.026	.137	.364	1.196	.242	.312	.395	.707
Rafael Devers	4.4	.534	.168	.009	.169	.549	1.218	.229	.331	.409	.739
Jung Hoo Lee	4.3	.773	.192	.040	.062	.321	.523	.269	.329	.385	.714
Willy Adames	4.2	.503	.155	.011	.139	.460	1.147	.216	.307	.375	.682
Drew Cavanaugh	4.1	.526	.135	.005	.077	.427	1.313	.206	.301	.310	.611
Drew Gilbert	4.0	.547	.147	.021	.084	.380	.824	.224	.310	.348	.658
Osleivis Basabe	3.9	.590	.166	.011	.047	.245	.747	.226	.283	.318	.600

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luis Rengifo	4.6	.823	.165	.016	.074	.385	.776	.257	.325	.357	.681
Jake Cronenworth	4.5	.640	.174	.017	.086	.579	.895	.238	.347	.358	.705
Manny Machado	4.4	.666	.184	.002	.157	.470	.887	.258	.339	.426	.765
Ty France	4.3	.722	.159	.017	.095	.334	.879	.258	.335	.382	.717
Jackson Merrill	4.2	.658	.191	.032	.112	.340	.885	.259	.323	.413	.736
Luis Campusano	4.1	.631	.162	.006	.111	.481	.829	.255	.348	.397	.745
Gavin Sheets	4.0	.580	.167	.004	.106	.424	.813	.243	.331	.384	.714
Xander Bogaerts	3.9	.697	.156	.006	.079	.402	.667	.273	.353	.390	.743
Sung-Mun Song	3.8	.654	.132	.012	.057	.329	.654	.251	.319	.347	.666

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections