San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

August 1, 2026 · Tyler Mahle vs Walker Buehler · 73°F

7.3% edge · San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants win

48.7%

San Diego Padres win

51.3%

Fair line (home)

-106

Proj. total

8.41

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 4.26)San Diego Padres (mean 4.16)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.41

Over

45.3%

Under

46.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	48.7%	+137	+106
San Diego Padres	51.3%	-149	-106

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luis Arraez	4.8	1.070	.206	.044	.046	.290	.225	.305	.352	.402	.754
Bryce Eldridge	4.7	.646	.192	.003	.149	.508	1.368	.238	.326	.393	.720
Heliot Ramos	4.6	.719	.171	.027	.154	.381	1.130	.258	.328	.423	.751
Rafael Devers	4.5	.565	.189	.007	.190	.563	1.139	.245	.347	.445	.791
Jung Hoo Lee	4.4	.797	.213	.046	.070	.326	.462	.281	.341	.409	.750
Willy Adames	4.3	.533	.161	.011	.143	.481	1.080	.225	.317	.387	.704
Daniel Susac	4.2	.656	.148	.020	.080	.254	1.071	.234	.291	.345	.636
Drew Gilbert	4.0	.572	.162	.022	.080	.380	.790	.231	.315	.354	.669
Christian Koss	3.9	.629	.172	.014	.063	.201	.887	.239	.288	.344	.632

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.6	.776	.206	.015	.166	.509	.831	.286	.370	.467	.838
Jake Cronenworth	4.5	.667	.174	.017	.098	.511	.830	.244	.340	.372	.712
Manny Machado	4.4	.659	.191	.002	.177	.434	.852	.261	.336	.445	.781
Ty France	4.3	.728	.173	.017	.116	.299	.801	.266	.334	.409	.742
Jackson Merrill	4.2	.673	.184	.029	.130	.306	.859	.263	.321	.427	.748
Luis Rengifo	4.1	.727	.141	.017	.069	.298	.643	.255	.315	.357	.672
Xander Bogaerts	4.0	.722	.162	.004	.086	.386	.647	.273	.349	.393	.742
Freddy Fermin	3.9	.623	.149	.005	.076	.327	.714	.243	.312	.353	.665
Jase Bowen	3.7	.525	.127	.027	.085	.260	1.080	.221	.280	.347	.628

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections