← Slate

Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

August 9, 2026 · Cristian Javier vs Randy Vásquez · 74°F
5.8% edge · Houston Astros
Houston Astros win
53.4%
San Diego Padres win
46.6%
Fair line (home)
+115
Proj. total
9.54

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

0%7%14%03691215182124Runs scored
Houston Astros (mean 5.06)San Diego Padres (mean 4.48)

Totals

O/U line
9
Proj. total
9.54
Over
45.4%
Under
44.3%

Model vs. market

SideModelBookFair
Houston Astros53.4%+106-115
San Diego Padres46.6%-114+115

Houston Astros — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
Jeremy Peña4.9.851.213.012.154.317.787.274.334.430.764
Yordan Alvarez4.8.711.212.008.299.673.755.305.413.585.998
Isaac Paredes4.7.607.178.007.205.558.713.249.358.451.809
Jose Altuve4.6.724.168.010.162.401.772.258.329.421.751
Taylor Trammell4.5.499.154.024.153.4961.329.212.308.381.688
Christian Walker4.4.536.156.009.215.4051.005.236.317.446.764
Daulton Varsho4.2.515.167.032.174.384.927.233.309.430.739
Yainer Diaz4.1.703.181.009.158.181.667.268.305.440.745
LaMonte Wade Jr.4.0.500.118.012.108.598.962.220.345.359.705

San Diego Padres — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.4.6.677.184.013.218.561.959.270.366.484.850
Jake Cronenworth4.5.581.167.015.122.566.946.228.339.373.712
Manny Machado4.4.592.165.002.230.476.962.251.335.470.805
Ty France4.3.646.153.014.150.328.938.250.330.413.743
Jackson Merrill4.2.594.170.025.167.348.980.249.315.436.751
Luis Rengifo4.1.662.127.014.102.330.738.242.310.365.674
Gavin Sheets4.0.524.146.006.167.422.870.239.327.425.752
Xander Bogaerts3.9.617.141.004.112.428.746.255.343.397.740
Freddy Fermin3.8.549.129.003.099.361.787.231.311.359.670
Data notes: away starter Cristian Javier: only 53 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Cristian Javier: only 72 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections