Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

August 8, 2026 · Peter Lambert vs Michael King · 76°F

4.4% edge · San Diego Padres

Houston Astros win

43.2%

San Diego Padres win

56.8%

Fair line (home)

-132

Proj. total

9.22

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 4.41)San Diego Padres (mean 4.81)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.22

Over

52.9%

Under

39.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	43.2%	+106	+132
San Diego Padres	56.8%	-115	-132

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.8	.796	.200	.011	.138	.319	.918	.261	.323	.406	.729
Yordan Alvarez	4.7	.667	.190	.005	.268	.687	.887	.288	.403	.544	.947
Isaac Paredes	4.6	.573	.163	.007	.187	.529	.824	.236	.342	.424	.766
Jose Altuve	4.5	.673	.164	.011	.140	.411	.900	.246	.321	.396	.717
Christian Walker	4.4	.527	.142	.010	.194	.393	1.148	.224	.306	.415	.721
Daulton Varsho	4.3	.500	.155	.027	.163	.378	1.066	.220	.297	.402	.698
Cam Smith	4.2	.561	.150	.020	.118	.388	1.113	.229	.310	.376	.686
Taylor Trammell	4.0	.403	.134	.018	.132	.466	1.352	.195	.296	.355	.650
Christian Vázquez	3.9	.572	.120	.006	.086	.284	.831	.218	.280	.326	.606

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.7	.745	.204	.015	.218	.550	.865	.291	.382	.510	.892
Jake Cronenworth	4.5	.628	.176	.017	.125	.552	.904	.242	.347	.391	.738
Manny Machado	4.4	.640	.173	.002	.224	.467	.886	.263	.343	.478	.821
Ty France	4.3	.689	.160	.015	.141	.322	.860	.260	.338	.418	.757
Jackson Merrill	4.2	.630	.177	.027	.167	.343	.901	.260	.324	.449	.773
Luis Campusano	4.1	.606	.157	.004	.166	.465	.824	.258	.348	.441	.789
Gavin Sheets	4.0	.539	.160	.006	.164	.425	.815	.245	.332	.433	.765
Xander Bogaerts	3.9	.662	.141	.003	.116	.403	.697	.266	.348	.409	.758
Luis Rengifo	3.8	.632	.131	.015	.091	.298	.650	.252	.319	.378	.697

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections