Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

August 7, 2026 · Ronel Blanco vs Robbie Ray · 75°F

2.7% edge · Houston Astros

Houston Astros win

51.5%

San Diego Padres win

48.5%

Fair line (home)

+106

Proj. total

9.18

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 4.79)San Diego Padres (mean 4.39)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.18

Over

52.3%

Under

47.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	51.5%	+101	-106
San Diego Padres	48.5%	-109	+106

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.9	.805	.204	.010	.148	.348	.925	.263	.327	.414	.741
Yordan Alvarez	4.7	.660	.186	.008	.272	.730	.891	.284	.402	.541	.943
Isaac Paredes	4.6	.600	.165	.006	.198	.595	.832	.245	.356	.441	.797
Jose Altuve	4.5	.686	.171	.011	.156	.445	.906	.253	.331	.416	.747
Christian Walker	4.4	.515	.151	.009	.214	.445	1.164	.227	.314	.434	.749
Daulton Varsho	4.3	.506	.167	.025	.164	.409	1.088	.223	.302	.406	.708
Yainer Diaz	4.2	.673	.175	.009	.165	.211	.784	.258	.299	.431	.730
Cam Smith	4.1	.550	.149	.017	.118	.410	1.091	.229	.314	.377	.691
Jake Meyers	4.0	.606	.141	.017	.091	.356	.892	.239	.314	.364	.679

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.6	.682	.191	.015	.206	.562	.976	.271	.365	.479	.845
Jake Cronenworth	4.5	.587	.158	.015	.114	.566	.977	.225	.334	.361	.696
Manny Machado	4.4	.595	.160	.002	.225	.486	.973	.251	.336	.466	.801
Luis Rengifo	4.3	.696	.137	.016	.106	.351	.800	.244	.313	.368	.681
Jackson Merrill	4.2	.584	.177	.023	.162	.334	1.020	.246	.309	.431	.740
Luis Campusano	4.1	.564	.144	.005	.160	.480	.907	.243	.338	.420	.758
Gavin Sheets	4.0	.521	.153	.005	.160	.408	.896	.237	.321	.418	.740
Xander Bogaerts	3.9	.620	.137	.004	.107	.414	.758	.253	.337	.388	.726
Sung-Mun Song	3.8	.587	.127	.009	.087	.339	.750	.239	.310	.358	.668

Data notes: away starter Ronel Blanco: only 44 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Ronel Blanco: only 18 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections