Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

August 10, 2026 · Logan Henderson vs Casey Mize · 74°F

7.0% edge · San Diego Padres

Milwaukee Brewers win

46.8%

San Diego Padres win

53.2%

Fair line (home)

-114

Proj. total

8.07

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.03)San Diego Padres (mean 4.05)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.07

Over

49.9%

Under

38.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	46.8%	-122	+114
San Diego Padres	53.2%	+112	-114

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brice Turang	4.8	.737	.173	.021	.123	.457	1.135	.246	.321	.382	.703
Jackson Chourio	4.6	.702	.216	.017	.189	.288	1.059	.259	.309	.447	.756
Jake Bauers	4.5	.534	.151	.010	.188	.522	1.355	.222	.317	.407	.723
Andrew Vaughn	4.4	.643	.186	.015	.137	.322	.888	.241	.303	.395	.698
Garrett Mitchell	4.3	.576	.154	.029	.124	.422	1.434	.228	.308	.379	.687
William Contreras	4.2	.685	.173	.004	.124	.441	.792	.263	.344	.410	.754
Christian Yelich	4.1	.597	.148	.011	.122	.424	1.105	.240	.323	.386	.709
Luis Lara	4.0	.611	.121	.020	.047	.380	.881	.224	.306	.309	.614
David Hamilton	3.9	.521	.114	.028	.090	.325	1.029	.213	.283	.338	.621

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.5	.681	.188	.012	.201	.448	.970	.268	.347	.470	.816
Jake Cronenworth	4.4	.595	.170	.017	.115	.465	.978	.231	.325	.373	.698
Manny Machado	4.3	.603	.164	.002	.213	.401	.964	.251	.323	.458	.781
Ty France	4.2	.645	.156	.014	.135	.262	.945	.247	.315	.400	.715
Jackson Merrill	4.1	.597	.180	.026	.160	.281	.982	.253	.308	.439	.747
Luis Rengifo	4.0	.679	.123	.016	.092	.281	.742	.247	.307	.363	.670
Gavin Sheets	3.9	.520	.149	.004	.151	.348	.884	.235	.310	.410	.720
Freddy Fermin	3.8	.581	.139	.004	.098	.294	.817	.238	.303	.366	.669
Sung-Mun Song	3.6	.599	.123	.010	.081	.276	.716	.242	.302	.357	.659

Data notes: away starter Logan Henderson: only 60 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections