Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

August 11, 2026 · Kyle Harrison vs Walker Buehler · 75°F

4.9% edge · San Diego Padres

Milwaukee Brewers win

48.9%

San Diego Padres win

51.1%

Fair line (home)

-105

Proj. total

8.73

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.42)San Diego Padres (mean 4.30)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.73

Over

55.6%

Under

44.4%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	48.9%	-121	+105
San Diego Padres	51.1%	+112	-105

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brice Turang	4.9	.760	.183	.023	.127	.564	1.082	.254	.343	.396	.740
Jackson Chourio	4.8	.728	.230	.017	.205	.360	1.009	.270	.331	.471	.802
Garrett Mitchell	4.7	.624	.176	.031	.133	.538	1.463	.237	.332	.393	.724
Jake Bauers	4.5	.532	.148	.008	.192	.615	1.278	.227	.338	.417	.756
William Contreras	4.4	.715	.178	.005	.143	.547	.761	.270	.365	.430	.794
Christian Yelich	4.3	.633	.148	.009	.133	.525	1.082	.245	.342	.394	.737
Luis Lara	4.2	.655	.134	.021	.053	.469	.870	.233	.327	.323	.650
David Hamilton	4.1	.552	.114	.029	.096	.404	1.018	.214	.296	.339	.635
Jihwan Bae	4.0	.615	.138	.023	.039	.421	1.046	.230	.318	.315	.633

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.6	.717	.186	.014	.190	.499	.989	.273	.359	.466	.825
Luis Rengifo	4.5	.748	.151	.012	.101	.307	.836	.246	.306	.362	.668
Manny Machado	4.4	.617	.171	.003	.199	.416	.986	.251	.325	.446	.771
Ty France	4.3	.655	.162	.014	.131	.291	.946	.250	.324	.402	.726
Jackson Merrill	4.2	.604	.178	.025	.156	.304	.999	.250	.309	.431	.740
Austin Hays	4.1	.563	.152	.025	.133	.292	1.099	.234	.297	.395	.692
Luis Campusano	4.0	.559	.147	.005	.155	.416	.883	.248	.334	.426	.760
Xander Bogaerts	3.8	.644	.146	.004	.110	.367	.744	.263	.340	.404	.744
Jake Cronenworth	3.7	.510	.138	.012	.087	.425	.802	.232	.334	.364	.698

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections