Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

August 12, 2026 · Dustin May vs Robbie Ray · 72°F

2.7% edge · San Diego Padres

Milwaukee Brewers win

49.5%

San Diego Padres win

50.5%

Fair line (home)

-102

Proj. total

8.32

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.24)San Diego Padres (mean 4.08)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.32

Over

44.0%

Under

48.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	49.5%	-114	+102
San Diego Padres	50.5%	+105	-102

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Chourio	4.8	.688	.212	.016	.206	.373	1.134	.254	.317	.450	.767
Brice Turang	4.7	.700	.165	.021	.122	.568	1.135	.245	.338	.384	.723
Andrew Vaughn	4.6	.662	.185	.015	.152	.422	.926	.246	.321	.409	.730
Jake Bauers	4.5	.494	.136	.011	.191	.628	1.339	.218	.333	.409	.742
William Contreras	4.4	.690	.155	.006	.149	.561	.812	.264	.362	.425	.788
Gary Sánchez	4.3	.472	.110	.016	.187	.499	1.129	.211	.314	.401	.715
Brandon Lockridge	4.2	.635	.151	.016	.048	.409	1.194	.228	.308	.316	.624
David Hamilton	4.1	.529	.110	.023	.099	.417	1.068	.210	.295	.336	.631
Joey Ortiz	3.9	.581	.153	.012	.075	.356	.759	.231	.306	.344	.650

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luis Rengifo	4.6	.812	.168	.018	.097	.315	.784	.259	.317	.376	.693
Jake Cronenworth	4.5	.646	.178	.016	.096	.492	.887	.241	.339	.369	.708
Manny Machado	4.4	.671	.179	.003	.189	.407	.908	.265	.336	.456	.792
Ty France	4.3	.709	.165	.018	.113	.279	.884	.261	.334	.401	.735
Jackson Merrill	4.2	.644	.195	.029	.127	.291	.917	.259	.316	.424	.739
Austin Hays	4.1	.603	.167	.023	.120	.279	1.028	.244	.304	.398	.702
Gavin Sheets	4.0	.547	.173	.004	.137	.371	.830	.243	.322	.411	.733
Xander Bogaerts	3.8	.684	.150	.005	.085	.345	.704	.268	.340	.388	.728
Freddy Fermin	3.7	.587	.137	.005	.081	.297	.749	.239	.307	.355	.661

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections