Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

August 21, 2026 · Connor Prielipp vs Randy Vásquez · 75°F

2.7% edge · Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins win

50.0%

San Diego Padres win

50.0%

Fair line (home)

+100

Proj. total

9.05

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 4.68)San Diego Padres (mean 4.37)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.05

Over

50.9%

Under

41.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	50.0%	+107	-100
San Diego Padres	50.0%	-116	+100

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Connor Prielipp LHP · Minnesota Twins	5.0	4.5	5.2	1.9	2.3
Randy Vásquez RHP · San Diego Padres	4.5	2.9	4.9	1.5	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Connor Prielipp4+ 68%6+ 30%8+ 8%

Randy Vásquez4+ 32%6+ 6%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.8	.833	.202	.012	.101	.469	.712	.271	.358	.395	.753
Byron Buxton	4.7	.582	.196	.029	.286	.371	1.105	.256	.326	.517	.843
Josh Bell	4.6	.689	.158	.009	.169	.429	.837	.249	.325	.415	.740
Ryan Jeffers	4.5	.632	.188	.010	.175	.468	.809	.256	.347	.443	.789
Kody Clemens	4.4	.534	.156	.040	.206	.294	.945	.232	.292	.445	.737
Royce Lewis	4.3	.599	.175	.007	.191	.348	.915	.251	.317	.448	.765
Trevor Larnach	4.2	.613	.166	.010	.134	.434	.829	.250	.335	.410	.745
Brooks Lee	4.0	.610	.144	.022	.139	.252	.654	.243	.296	.404	.700
Kaelen Culpepper	3.9	.587	.137	.018	.125	.268	.852	.240	.303	.392	.696

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.6	.757	.206	.015	.181	.530	.878	.286	.375	.478	.852
Luis Rengifo	4.5	.819	.158	.011	.094	.318	.792	.261	.322	.372	.694
Manny Machado	4.4	.675	.175	.003	.183	.433	.903	.262	.338	.446	.785
Ty France	4.3	.718	.169	.011	.131	.294	.886	.265	.337	.415	.753
Jackson Merrill	4.2	.665	.187	.026	.151	.301	.931	.266	.324	.445	.769
Xander Bogaerts	4.1	.713	.161	.003	.095	.414	.736	.266	.346	.390	.736
Austin Hays	4.0	.592	.150	.025	.124	.266	1.027	.242	.299	.397	.695
Freddy Fermin	3.9	.638	.149	.003	.087	.292	.787	.247	.310	.364	.674
Jake Cronenworth	3.8	.551	.147	.013	.084	.402	.771	.242	.338	.372	.709

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections