Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

August 22, 2026 · Dean Kremer vs Casey Mize · 76°F

0.4% edge · Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins win

44.2%

San Diego Padres win

55.8%

Fair line (home)

-126

Proj. total

8.8

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 4.25)San Diego Padres (mean 4.55)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.8

Over

48.6%

Under

43.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	44.2%	+124	+126
San Diego Padres	55.8%	-134	-126

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Dean Kremer RHP · Minnesota Twins	4.9	3.8	5.3	1.6	2.5
Casey Mize RHP · San Diego Padres	5.0	4.4	4.9	1.5	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Dean Kremer4+ 54%6+ 19%8+ 4%

Casey Mize4+ 66%6+ 28%8+ 7%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.7	.791	.185	.012	.100	.423	.826	.259	.338	.380	.718
Byron Buxton	4.6	.547	.177	.026	.271	.334	1.260	.242	.305	.490	.795
Josh Bell	4.5	.645	.145	.010	.157	.390	.960	.235	.307	.392	.699
Ryan Jeffers	4.4	.589	.172	.009	.173	.426	.928	.243	.327	.425	.752
Kody Clemens	4.3	.488	.151	.036	.190	.271	1.089	.218	.274	.417	.691
Royce Lewis	4.2	.567	.161	.007	.178	.306	1.042	.238	.297	.422	.719
Trevor Larnach	4.1	.576	.147	.008	.135	.398	.953	.238	.317	.394	.711
Brooks Lee	4.0	.589	.129	.020	.140	.240	.743	.238	.289	.398	.687
Kaelen Culpepper	3.8	.557	.130	.017	.118	.248	.905	.232	.291	.378	.669

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.6	.774	.210	.017	.200	.470	.816	.293	.370	.498	.869
Jake Cronenworth	4.5	.673	.178	.014	.112	.448	.866	.245	.332	.382	.713
Manny Machado	4.4	.674	.176	.001	.216	.384	.850	.267	.334	.475	.809
Ty France	4.3	.738	.177	.013	.149	.259	.828	.275	.336	.441	.776
Jackson Merrill	4.2	.689	.185	.028	.173	.267	.864	.276	.327	.471	.797
Luis Rengifo	4.1	.752	.147	.015	.098	.280	.650	.269	.326	.394	.720
Gavin Sheets	4.0	.570	.167	.005	.140	.356	.787	.246	.320	.413	.733
Xander Bogaerts	3.9	.692	.154	.004	.107	.348	.645	.275	.346	.414	.760
Freddy Fermin	3.7	.615	.146	.003	.098	.250	.737	.249	.305	.378	.683

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections