Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

August 24, 2026 · Braxton Ashcraft vs Robbie Ray · 74°F

1.7% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates win

50.2%

San Diego Padres win

49.8%

Fair line (home)

+101

Proj. total

8.47

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.40)San Diego Padres (mean 4.07)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.47

Over

53.5%

Under

46.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	50.2%	+102	-101
San Diego Padres	49.8%	-111	+101

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Braxton Ashcraft RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	5.5	4.9	5.5	1.7	2.3
Robbie Ray LHP · San Diego Padres	5.1	5.6	4.9	2.5	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Braxton Ashcraft4+ 74%6+ 37%8+ 12%

Robbie Ray4+ 83%6+ 50%8+ 20%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Gonzales	4.8	.822	.218	.022	.096	.361	.986	.262	.324	.386	.710
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.7	.524	.162	.008	.242	.573	1.470	.228	.328	.449	.777
Bryan Reynolds	4.6	.627	.168	.015	.155	.503	1.226	.239	.332	.403	.735
Oneil Cruz	4.5	.512	.143	.015	.207	.549	1.505	.224	.324	.427	.751
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.4	.580	.140	.014	.152	.452	1.273	.227	.311	.387	.698
Brandon Lowe	4.3	.504	.146	.007	.212	.430	1.257	.227	.310	.436	.746
Nick Yorke	4.2	.648	.155	.013	.098	.325	1.001	.240	.305	.365	.670
Spencer Horwitz	4.1	.558	.169	.010	.114	.542	.768	.246	.355	.399	.754
Jared Triolo	4.0	.568	.138	.009	.075	.461	.943	.228	.324	.338	.662

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.6	.754	.199	.015	.170	.475	.909	.280	.361	.462	.823
Jake Cronenworth	4.5	.658	.167	.012	.089	.446	.943	.235	.326	.351	.677
Manny Machado	4.4	.653	.174	.002	.178	.382	.938	.254	.323	.434	.756
Ty France	4.3	.710	.171	.014	.125	.255	.899	.264	.332	.413	.745
Jackson Merrill	4.2	.648	.177	.028	.148	.254	.947	.258	.308	.433	.741
Xander Bogaerts	4.0	.711	.156	.005	.090	.366	.739	.264	.337	.383	.720
Gavin Sheets	3.9	.552	.163	.004	.123	.367	.858	.238	.317	.391	.708
Freddy Fermin	3.8	.618	.145	.004	.079	.248	.827	.239	.296	.350	.646
Dustin Harris	3.7	.574	.128	.025	.078	.278	.848	.238	.303	.359	.662

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections