Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

August 25, 2026 · Paul Skenes vs Michael King · 82°F

4.4% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates win

49.0%

San Diego Padres win

51.0%

Fair line (home)

-104

Proj. total

7.95

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.08)San Diego Padres (mean 3.88)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.95

Over

48.7%

Under

39.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	49.0%	+120	+104
San Diego Padres	51.0%	-130	-104

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Paul Skenes RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	5.2	5.8	4.7	1.5	1.9
Michael King RHP · San Diego Padres	5.3	5.3	5.1	2.1	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Paul Skenes4+ 85%6+ 54%8+ 22%

Michael King4+ 79%6+ 43%8+ 14%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Spencer Horwitz	4.8	.706	.203	.012	.134	.570	.900	.255	.353	.406	.759
Brandon Lowe	4.7	.579	.158	.007	.215	.417	1.363	.228	.302	.422	.725
Bryan Reynolds	4.5	.627	.163	.014	.145	.489	1.201	.238	.331	.394	.725
Nick Gonzales	4.4	.782	.194	.023	.080	.285	.902	.263	.320	.380	.700
Oneil Cruz	4.3	.512	.150	.017	.190	.495	1.426	.228	.322	.426	.748
Jake Mangum	4.2	.803	.163	.017	.043	.215	.840	.260	.308	.342	.650
Jacob Gonzalez	4.1	.557	.158	.010	.123	.295	.850	.224	.289	.369	.658
Jared Triolo	4.0	.595	.148	.008	.070	.413	.961	.231	.318	.335	.653
Henry Davis	3.9	.475	.122	.004	.132	.340	1.033	.210	.293	.361	.653

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.5	.698	.184	.014	.166	.448	1.072	.263	.343	.439	.782
Jake Cronenworth	4.4	.619	.159	.012	.086	.422	1.110	.223	.312	.336	.649
Manny Machado	4.3	.613	.166	.001	.173	.367	1.089	.243	.311	.418	.729
Ty France	4.2	.661	.149	.011	.123	.249	1.048	.247	.316	.388	.704
Jackson Merrill	4.1	.595	.165	.026	.145	.265	1.088	.244	.299	.415	.714
Luis Rengifo	4.0	.674	.135	.012	.075	.273	.854	.243	.303	.348	.651
Luis Campusano	3.9	.562	.146	.005	.127	.356	.984	.240	.316	.393	.709
Xander Bogaerts	3.8	.614	.145	.004	.082	.354	.819	.250	.327	.368	.695
Dustin Harris	3.6	.535	.121	.020	.076	.279	.961	.226	.294	.343	.637

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections