Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres — Prediction & Odds

August 23, 2026 · Bailey Ober vs Walker Buehler · 78°F

0.3% edge · San Diego Padres

Minnesota Twins win

43.5%

San Diego Padres win

56.5%

Fair line (home)

-130

Proj. total

9.23

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 4.47)San Diego Padres (mean 4.76)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.23

Over

42.7%

Under

46.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	43.5%	+124	+130
San Diego Padres	56.5%	-134	-130

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Bailey Ober RHP · Minnesota Twins	5.2	3.7	5.8	1.4	2.8
Walker Buehler RHP · San Diego Padres	4.6	3.7	4.8	1.8	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Bailey Ober4+ 51%6+ 17%8+ 3%

Walker Buehler4+ 50%6+ 15%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.8	.805	.201	.014	.095	.496	.777	.265	.356	.387	.743
Byron Buxton	4.7	.571	.191	.030	.270	.389	1.200	.251	.324	.501	.826
Josh Bell	4.6	.664	.159	.011	.161	.478	.922	.245	.330	.409	.739
Kody Clemens	4.5	.545	.164	.039	.191	.326	1.055	.230	.295	.429	.724
Royce Lewis	4.4	.614	.176	.007	.197	.381	1.014	.252	.323	.450	.773
Brooks Lee	4.3	.647	.141	.020	.140	.304	.725	.242	.302	.395	.697
Alan Roden	4.1	.625	.158	.013	.106	.421	.780	.246	.335	.383	.718
Victor Caratini	4.0	.620	.119	.005	.099	.351	.807	.235	.319	.354	.673
Kaelen Culpepper	3.9	.583	.138	.018	.118	.287	.880	.240	.306	.388	.694

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.6	.780	.208	.015	.241	.394	.786	.299	.365	.529	.894
Jake Cronenworth	4.5	.669	.181	.014	.135	.387	.816	.249	.327	.402	.729
Manny Machado	4.4	.685	.177	.002	.245	.330	.817	.275	.333	.502	.835
Ty France	4.3	.731	.170	.013	.165	.227	.772	.275	.335	.451	.786
Jackson Merrill	4.2	.669	.184	.028	.203	.227	.820	.276	.320	.493	.813
Luis Campusano	4.1	.644	.158	.004	.181	.334	.776	.267	.332	.458	.790
Gavin Sheets	4.0	.569	.170	.006	.162	.317	.747	.252	.318	.437	.755
Xander Bogaerts	3.8	.693	.147	.004	.122	.311	.602	.276	.340	.425	.765
Luis Rengifo	3.7	.676	.137	.014	.104	.213	.578	.268	.317	.405	.722

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections